This page now serves three purposes. It begins with a list of estimates of the decay times for all recently decayed objects. This is followed by a list of my predictions for the upcoming decays of larger, non-debris objects. Finally, there are more comprehensive current data about the decay and re-entry prospects for larger objects, chiefly those for which decay notices are issued by the Space Control Center (SCC) which is a component of the US Strategic Command, USSTRATCOM.
The table that follows lists estimates of the actual decay times of objects over the past few months. My estimates are based on analyses using my SatEvo software of elsets released by SCC. Alongside are SCC's own reports of the decay time, taken from SCC's decay reports or from the decay dates listed in the Satellite Situation Report. Where too few elsets are available on which to base my estimate, I leave the corresponding entry blank. Sadly, there appears to be an increasing trend for only a subset of elsets to be released for general use.
# Designation Name Estimated actual decay times
My estimate SCC report
2003 2003
20390 89-100 B Cosmos 2053 r Jun 5.17 Jun 5.17
25895 99- 46 B Koreasat 3 Ariane 42P r Jun 6.63 Jun 6.62
27824 03- 25 B Progress M1-10 Soyuz r Jun 10.76 Jun 10.76
27817 03- 22 B Mars Express Fregat r Jun 12
24310 95- 41 D Koreasat 1 Delta deb Jun 14.1 Jun 14
5638 70- 89 CJ Cosmos 374 deb Jun 17.5 Jun 17
27181 01- 49 DZ TES PSLV deb Jun 18.0 Jun 18
17332 85- 56 E Giotto Ariane 1 deb Jun 19 Jun 19
20444 90- 6 A Molniya 3-37 Jun 23.86 Jun 23.81
17670 76-126 BV Cosmos 886 deb Jun 24.6 Jun 27
22413 92- 93 DE Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb Jun 27.6 Jun 28
22401 92- 93 CS Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb Jun 29.7 Jun 29
27705 03- 10 B GPS 52 Delta 2 r Jun 29.76 Jun 29.77
5282 71- 52 B Cosmos 426 r Jul 1.01 Jul 1.01
24283 96- 48 B ChinaSat 7 LM r Jul 2.81 Jul 2.83
27486 92- 41 G Insat 2A Ariane 44L deb Jul 4
27836 03- 29 C Molniya 3-53 casing Jul 13.64 Jul 13.64
27242 01- 49 GN TES PSLV deb Jul 23? Jul 23
27627 88- 98 J TDF 1 Ariane 2 deb Jul 23? Jul 19
26409 00- 40 C GPS 48 PAM r Jul 27.24 Jul 27.23
27835 03- 29 B Molniya 3-53 Molniya-M r Jul 30.19 Jul 30.17
4330 70- 11 A Ohsumi Aug 1.82 Aug 1.86
27587 01- 49 NF TES PSLV dev Aug 6 Aug 5
11286 79- 20 B Intercosmos 19 r Aug 6.68 Aug 6.68
22875 93- 67 A Cosmos 2265 Aug 11.79 Aug 11.82
20871 90- 81 AK FY-1B CZ deb Aug 12.9 Aug 18
27857 03- 35 B Cosmos 2339 Soyuz r Aug 16.19 Aug 16.18
840 60- 7 D Transit 2A deb Aug 18.9 Aug 19
24655 96- 63 D Arabsat 2B Spelda Aug 21 Aug 21
27447 02- 29 E Express 4A aux motor Aug 24.52 Aug 24.67
26219 99- 57 DH CBERS LM4 deb Aug 25.5 Aug 25
27099 01- 49 AT TES PSLV deb Aug 28.3 Aug 28
27681 03- 6 A Progress M-47 Aug 28
27874 03- 39 B Progress M-48 r Aug 31.09 Aug 31.09
27917 87- 79 AA Cosmos 1883 SL-12 deb Sep 2
27145 01- 49 CR TES PSLV deb Sep 3 Sep 5
25641 99- 9 D ArabSat 3A Spelda Sep 4.45 Sep 4.33
27822 90- 37 D HST deb D Sep 5.2 Sep 5
27634 02- 61 C Shenzhou 4 OM Sep 9.23 Sep 9.25
27928 87- 79 AM Cosmos 1883 SL-12 deb Sep 9
27924 87- 79 AH Cosmos 1883 SL-12 deb Sep 10
27926 87- 79 AK Cosmos 1883 SL-12 deb Sep 15
27914 87- 79 X Cosmos 1883 SL-12 deb Sep 16
27925 87- 79 AJ Cosmos 1883 SL-12 deb Sep 17
5226 70- 25 KH Nimbus 4 ThAg deb Sep 24.0 Sep 23
26212 99- 57 DA CBERS LM4 deb Sep 28.2 Sep 28
27947 03- 42 J STSat-1 SL-8 r Sep 28
27823 03- 25 A Progress M1-10 Oct 3
27935 87- 79 AU Cosmos 1883 SL-12 deb Oct 3
27956 78- 64 N Seasat 1 deb Oct 3
23100 94- 27 B SROSS-C2 r Oct 6.15 Oct 6.17
20258 89- 78 D Molniya 1-76 r2 Oct 6.84 Oct 6.84
26197 99- 57 CK CBERS LM4 deb Oct 8.2 Oct 10
24268 94- 29 MT Pegasus deb Oct 12.5 Oct 13
23416 94- 80 B DFH-3 1 LM r Oct 13.40 Oct 13.40
28006 88- 85 BC Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 14
22511 92- 93 GW Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb Oct 15.3 Oct 14
27459 02- 34 C Contour Delta 2 r Oct 15.4 Oct 15.42
19348 88- 66 E Cosmos 1961 aux motor Oct 15.78 Oct 15.72
27988 88- 85 AJ Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 16
28013 88- 85 BK Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 16
28043 03- 45 A Shenzhou 5 Oct 16
28045 03- 45 C Shenzhou 5 deb Oct 16.9 Oct 16
28046 03- 45 D Shenzhou 5 deb Oct 17 Oct 16
28015 88- 85 BM Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 17
28032 88- 85 CE Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 17
28048 03- 45 F Shenzhou 5 deb Oct 18.1 Oct 21
28005 88- 85 BB Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 18
28018 88- 85 BQ Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 18
28035 88- 85 CH Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 18
28047 03- 45 E Shenzhou 5 deb Oct 18 Oct 21
28031 88- 85 CD Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 19
28053 03- 47 B Soyuz TMA-3 r Oct 20.22 Oct 20.22
27980 88- 85 AA Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 21
28017 88- 85 BP Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 21
27096 01- 49 AQ TES PSLV deb Oct 22 Oct 22
25830 70- 67 F Transit 19 deb Oct 22.7 Oct 24
20970 90- 81 CC FY-1B CZ deb Oct 24.2 Oct 24
27982 88- 85 AC Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 24
28028 88- 85 CA Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 24
28044 03- 45 B Shenzhou 5 r Oct 24.79 Oct 24.79
22472 92- 93 FM Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb Oct 25.5 Oct 24
28009 88- 85 BF Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 25
28010 88- 85 BG Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 25
28020 88- 85 BS Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 26
28024 88- 85 BW Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 26
22399 92- 93 CQ Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb Oct 26.8 Oct 26
22389 92- 93 CE Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb Oct 27.3 Oct 27
27975 88- 85 V Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 27
28007 88- 85 BD Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 27
28022 88- 85 BU Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 27
24256 94- 29 MF Step-2 Pegasus deb Oct 28.2 Oct 28
27781 03- 16 A Soyuz TMA-2 Oct 28
28014 88- 85 BL Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 28
12214 78- 26 BF Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb Oct 29.1 Oct 28
28023 88- 85 BV Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 29
28037 88- 85 CK Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 29
26261 99- 57 EX CBERS LM4 deb Oct 29.7 Oct 29
26189 99- 57 CB CBERS LM4 deb Oct 30.0 Oct 30
28008 88- 85 BE Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Oct 30
22538 92- 93 GY Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb Oct 30.7 Oct 30
27439 01- 49 LK TES PSLV deb Nov 1.1 Nov 1.15
28019 88- 85 BR Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 2
28026 88- 85 BY Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 2
28033 88- 85 CF Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 2
16600 86- 16 C N-2 r2 Nov 2.9 Nov 2.8
28079 03- 51 D Jianbin 4 CZ-2D deb Nov 3
25722 99- 22 B Megsat Nov 4.3 Nov 4.37
26652 99- 57 LJ CBERS LM4 deb Nov 4.4 Nov 3
26923 87- 80 J Oscar 27 Scout deb Nov 4 Nov 4
28076 03- 51 A Jianbin 4 CZ-2D deb Nov 4 Nov 4
27696 02- 51 H Eutelsat W5 Delta deb Nov 5? Nov 6
27996 88- 85 AS Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 6
27702 03- 9 E IGS Fairing 1 Nov 7.42 Nov 7.42
28003 88- 85 AZ Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 7
27487 02- 41 H Insat 2A Ariane deb Nov 8? Nov 10
27991 88- 85 AM Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 8
27994 88- 85 AQ Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 8
28002 88- 85 AY Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 8
27987 88- 85 AH Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 9
27995 88- 85 AR Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 9
27338 01- 49 LK TES PSLV deb Nov 10? Nov 10
27979 88- 85 Z Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 10? Nov 6
26341 99- 57 JA CBERS LM4 deb Nov 11.2 Nov 10
21753 83-127 K Glonas 7 Proton deb Nov 11.3 Nov 9
27990 88- 85 AL Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 11
27993 88- 85 AR Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 11
27966 88- 85 AR Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 12
28077 03- 51 B Jianbin 4 CZ-2D r Nov 13.0 Nov 13
27999 88- 85 L Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 13
28038 88- 85 CL Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 14
28027 88- 85 BZ Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 15
28016 88- 85 BN Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 16
17660 69- 82 KW OPS 1807 ThAg deb Nov 16.8 Nov 16
28012 88- 85 BJ Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 17
27968 88- 85 N Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 18
28030 88- 85 CC Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 18
27960 87- 79 AZ Cos 1883 Proton deb Nov 19 Nov 17
28025 88- 85 BX Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 19 Nov 19
27974 88- 85 U Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 20
27984 88- 85 AE Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 20
23298 85-118 V Cos 1710 Proton deb Nov 21.3 Nov 21
28063 95- 64 E Asiasat 2 deb Nov 21
27778 03- 15 D Cosmos 2397 aux motor Nov 22.11 Nov 22.11
28085 03- 35 D Cosmos 2399 deb Nov 22.3 Nov 22.38
27985 88- 85 AF Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 22 Nov 5
27111 01- 49 BF TES PSLV deb Nov 23.2 Nov 21
28084 03- 35 C Cosmos 2399 deb Nov 23.2 Nov 23.14
28000 88- 85 AW Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 23
28011 88- 85 BH Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 24
4813 70-113 A Cosmos 389 Nov 24.88 Nov 24.83
28090 03- 53 B Yamal-200 platform Nov 24.9 Nov 24.9
28091 03- 53 C Yamal-200 Proton r1 Nov 24.93 Nov 25.2
27969 88- 85 P Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 25
27972 88- 85 S Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 25
28021 88- 85 BT Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 25
28087 03- 35 F Cosmos 2399 deb Nov 26.5 Nov 26.53
28088 03- 35 G Cosmos 2399 deb Nov 26.3 Nov 26.25
27973 88- 85 T Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Nov 27
27703 03- 9 F IGS Fairing 2 Nov 29.31 Nov 29.30
28086 03- 35 E Cosmos 2399 deb Nov 30.72 Nov 30.72
1822 65- 82 DM OV2-1 Transtage r Dec 2.7 Dec 2.68
28034 88- 85 CG Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Dec 6
28036 88- 85 CJ Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Dec 7
27997 88- 85 AT Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Dec 8? Nov 22
27856 03- 35 A Cosmos 2399 Dec 9? Dec 9
28110 03- 35 T Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 9? Dec 10
28102 03- 35 K Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 9.7 Dec 9
28103 03- 35 L Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 9.7 Dec 9
28111 03- 35 U Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 9.7 Dec 9
28100 03- 35 H Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10? Dec 10
27955 03- 5 F GPS 51 Delta 2 deb Dec 10
28101 03- 35 J Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10
28120 03- 35 V Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10
28121 03- 35 W Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10
28122 03- 35 X Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10
28123 03- 35 Y Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10
28124 03- 35 Z Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10
28125 03- 35 AA Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10
28126 03- 35 AB Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10
28127 03- 35 AC Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10
28128 03- 35 AD Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10
28106 03- 35 P Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 10.6 Dec 9
22522 93- 11 B Astro 4 r Dec 10.86 Dec 10.86
28104 03- 35 M Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 11 Dec 10
28108 03- 35 R Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 11 Dec 10
28105 03- 35 N Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 12 Dec 11
28107 03- 35 Q Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 12 Dec 12
28109 03- 35 S Cosmos 2399 deb Dec 12 Dec 12
25233 98- 12 A SNOE Dec 13.3 Dec 13
27116 01- 49 BL TES PSLV deb Dec 18.3 Dec 18
28078 03- 51 A FSW-3 1 Dec 18.79 Dec 18.8
27641 03- 1 B Coriolis Titan 2 r Dec 19.31 Dec 19.32
27306 01- 49 KC TES PSLV deb Dec 21.4 Dec 21
17634 81- 53 LG Cosmos 1275 deb Dec 29.5 Dec 29
28029 88- 85 CB Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Dec 29
28136 03- 60 C Expr. AM-22 Platform Dec 29.57
27997 88- 85 AT Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Dec 30
28135 03- 60 B Expr. AM-22 Proton r Dec 31.31
2004 2004
27050 89- 62 N TVSat Ariane 44LP deb Jan 3.9 Jan 3.9
27758 94- 29 AEN Step-2 Pegasus deb Jan 6
27779 03- 15 E Cosmos 2397 aux motor Jan 8.01 Jan 8.04
24263 94- 29 MN Step-2 Pegasus deb Jan 10.9 Jan 11
20022 63- 14 EY Westford Needles deb Jan 12.6 Jan 12
27363 01- 49 ML TES PSLV deb Jan 15.5 Jan 14
28062 95- 64 D Asiasat 2 deb Jan 15
1370 65- 20 AC Cosmos 61 deb Jan 17.4 Jan 17
26632 00- 79 B EROS A1 Start-1 rocket Jan 17.54 Jan 17.55
22879 93- 68 C GPS 2-23 PAM-D r Jan 20.53 Jan 20.50 (Actual = Jan 20.49)
22633 93- 25 A Molniya 3-44 Jan 25.28 Jan 25.28
27512 01- 49 MU TES PSLV deb Jan 25 Jan 25
27986 88- 85 AG Glonass 37 SL-12 deb Jan 27.6
27829 03- 27 C MER-A Delta 2 rocket Jan 27.66 Jan 27.65
27873 03- 39 A Progress M-48 Jan 28
26232 99- 57 DW CBERS LM4 deb Jan 30.6 Jan 30
28143 04- 2 B Progress M1-11 Soyuz r Feb 1.13 Feb 1.13
26602 96- 17 C IRS B3 deb Feb 6.5 Feb 6
26307 99- 57 GQ CBERS LM4 deb Feb 7.0 Feb 6
27259 01- 49 HS TES PSLV deb Feb 11.2 Feb 13
27719 03- 14 B Asiasat 4 Centaur rocket Feb 12.47 Feb 12.48
27165 01- 49 DM TES PSLV deb Feb 12.7 Feb 12
26251 99- 57 EM CBERS LM4 deb Feb 13.2 Feb 12
2086 65-109 C Transit 10 Scout deb Feb 14.5 Feb 17
28162 77- 5 G NATO 3B Delta 1 deb Feb 17 Feb 17
27839 03- 30 B OrbView 3 Pegasus rocket Feb 22.36 Feb 22.36
18983 88- 22 D Molniya 1-72 r2 Feb 23
28172 01- 57 D Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 1 Feb 29
28173 01- 57 E Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 2 Mar 1
28179 01- 57 L Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 2 Mar 1
28180 01- 57 M Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 2 Mar 2
26293 99- 57 GF CBERS LM4 deb Mar 2.7 Mar 2
28174 01- 57 F Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 3 Mar 3
28178 01- 57 K Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 3 Mar 3
28183 01- 57 Q Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 3 Mar 3
26276 99- 57 FN CBERS LM4 deb Mar 4.0 Mar 3
25154 98- 6 C Inmarsat 3-F5 Ariane r Mar 4.3 Mar 4.2
28171 01- 57 C Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 4 Mar 5
28181 01- 57 N Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 4 Mar 4
28176 01- 57 H Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 6 Mar 5
23813 96- 5 F Gorizont 31 aux motor Mar 7.23 Mar 7.24
15916 85- 61 D Molniya 3-25 r2 Mar 8.5 Mar 8.6
28182 01- 57 P Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 8 Mar 8
27932 87- 79 AR Cos 1883 SL-12 deb Mar 10
28177 01- 57 J Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 11.4 Mar 11
28146 78- 64 P Seasat 1 deb Mar 14.7 Mar 14
28166 04- 5 D Cos 2405 Molniya casing Mar 15.35 Mar 15.35
26682 85- 37 J Cos 1650 SL-12 deb Mar 16.0 Mar 15
4393 70- 37 A Meteor 1-4 Mar 16.59 Mar 16.62
27860 64- 49 R Cosmos 41 deb Mar 17 Mar 18
28175 01- 57 G Cosmos 2382 deb Mar 18.4 Mar 18
23332 94- 70 B Astra 1D Ariane r Mar 20.5 Mar 20.46
27053 01- 57 A Cosmos 2383 Mar 20.77 Mar 20.79
27584 01- 49 NC TES PSLV dev Mar 23 Mar 22
28167 04- 5 E Cos 2405 Molniya-M deb Mar 23.6 Mar 22
19482 61- 15 MG Transit 4A deb Mar 27
28168 04- 5 F Cos 2405 Molniya-M deb Mar 27.5 Mar 28
28195 04- 10 B Cos 2407 Proton casing Mar 28.1 Mar 28.1
28196 04- 10 C Cos 2407 Proton r1 Mar 29.2 Mar 28.25
27930 87- 79 AP Cos 1883 SL-12 deb Mar 29 Mar 30
5357 70- 86 C Cos 372 SL-8 deb Apr 2.0 Apr 2
28214 87- 79 BJ Cos 1883 SL-12 deb Apr 2
27934 87- 79 AT Cos 1883 SL-12 deb Apr 5
14528 63- 47 Q Atlas Centaur 2 deb Apr 6.7 Apr 6
27156 01- 49 DC TES PSLV deb Apr 7.2 Apr 9
27109 01- 49 BD TES PSLV deb Apr 8.2 Apr 8
869 64- 49 D Cosmos 41 Apr 9.13 Apr 9.14
28165 04- 5 C Cos 2405 Molniya-M r1 Apr 10.85 Apr 10.87
14416 68- 91 CS Cosmos 249 deb Apr 11.7 Apr 12
26343 99- 57 JC CBERS LM4 deb Apr 16.8 Apr 16
26057 00- 2 B Galaxy 10R Ariane r Apr 17? Apr 16
28219 04- 11 B Superbird 6 Centaur r Apr 19
24934 97- 49 D Hot Bird 3 Spelda Apr 21.18 Apr 21.20
22572 92- 93 HU Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb Apr 21.3 Apr 21
28229 04- 13 B Soyuz TMA-4 Soyuz r Apr 21.80 Apr 21.81
27217 01- 49 FM TES PSLV deb Apr 24.9 Apr 23
10389 77- 65 DY GMS 1 Delta deb Apr 26.7 Apr 26
28235 04- 15 B Expr. AM-11 Proton casing Apr 27.55
28236 05- 15 C Express AM-11 Proton r1 Apr 29.32
27891 78- 83 J Cosmos 1030 deb Apr 30
28052 03- 47 A Soyuz TMA-3 Apr 30
25111 97- 83 B Intelsat 804 Ariane r May 3.64 May 3.65
4825 70- 89 V Cosmos 374 deb May 3.7 May 6
26914 85- 56 N Giotto Ariane 1 deb May 4.2 May 4
23794 96- 10 A Raduga 33 May 6.26 May 6.27 (Sighted during re-entry)
898 64- 49 E Cosmos 41 r2 May 7.25 May 7.26
11630 79- 99 B Cosmos 1145 r May 7.48 May 7.51
16564 79- 17 GX Solwind deb May 8.8 May 9
27234 01- 49 GE TES PSLV deb May 10 May 7
27083 01- 49 AB TES PSLV deb May 11.0 May 11
26576 00- 65 B USA 153 Centaur r May 15.86 May 15.86
27936 87- 79 AV Cos 1883 SL-12 deb May 21.0 May 20
19639 61- 15 MH Transit 4A deb May 23 May 22
27862 64- 49 T Cosmos 41 deb May 23 May 23
25151 92- 72 F Galaxy 7 Ariane 42P+ deb May 25 May 25
28257 89- 1 R Glonass 40 SL-12 deb May 26 May 26
28231 04- 14 B Gravity Probe B Delta r May 27.62 May 27.63
28262 04- 19 B Progress M-49 Soyuz r May 28.06 May 28.08
26579 00- 66 B Thuraya-1 Blok DM-SL r May 30? May 28
28351 04- 20 B Cosmos 2407 Tsiklon-2 r May 28 May 28.86
28049 03- 45 G Shenzhou 5 Orbital Module May 30.12 May 30.13
28142 04- 2 A Progress M1-11 Jun 3
24716 97- 2 D GE-2 Ariane Spelda Jun 6 Jun 27.22
28150 87- 79 BE Cos 1883 SL-12 deb Jun 6
8346 75- 94 C C 773 SL-8 deb Jun 18.4 Jun 18
24807 67- 92 K Transit 17 Scout deb Jun 25.9 Jun 26
22345 92- 93 AJ C 2227 Zenit deb Jun 26.2 Jun 26
22273 92- 88 E Cosmos 2224 aux motor Jun 27.12 Jun 27.12 (Sighted during re-entry)
26031 88- 18 E SpaceNet 3R Ariane 3 deb Jun 30.96 Jun 30.98
27468 83-127 Q C 1519 Proton deb Jul 11? Jul 11
11634 79- 57 C NOAA 6 deb Jul 12.6 Jul 13
25559 98- 70 B Satmex 5 Ariane r Jul 12.76 Jul 12.76
23955 96- 41 C GPS 26 PAM r Jul 15.53 Jul 15.53
3553 68- 97 F Cosmos 252 deb Jul 23.1 Jul 23
27851 03- 32 C MER-B Delta 2 r Jul 25.04 Jul 25.00
28261 04- 19 A Progress M-49 Jul 30
27701 03- 9 D IGS1 adapter Aug 8.69 Aug 8.72
27239 01- 49 GK TES PSLV deb Aug 13.3 Aug 12
12213 78- 26 BE Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb Aug 13.4 Aug 13
28400 04- 32 B Progress M-50 Soyuz r Aug 13.67 Aug 13.71
11015 78- 83 A Cosmos 1030 Aug 17.82 Aug 17.82
27315 01- 49 KM TES PSLV deb Aug 19.4 Aug 18
28401 78- 83 L Cosmos 1030 deb Aug 20.7
28223 04- 12 D Shiyan 1 deb Aug 21.3
27131 01- 49 CB TES PSLV deb Aug 23.6 Aug 24
26692 01- 4 C GPS 50 PAM-D r Aug 26.56 Aug 26.54
28404 04- 33 C FSW 3 CZ-2C deb Aug 31.9 Aug 31
28405 04- 33 D FSW 3 CZ-2C deb Sep 1.0 Aug 31
28362 04- 23 B GPS 55 Delta 2 r Sep 1.73 Sep 1.73
These are my predictions of the decay dates for larger objects over the coming weeks. The final column gives the date that I made the estimate. See below implies that there is a current Decay Watch notice for this object.
# Designation Name Estimated decay Last updated
2004 2004
28403 04- 33 B FSW 3 CZ-2C r Sep 10 Sep 4
28130 03- 58 B Navstar 53 Delta 2 r Sep 14 Sep 4
28191 04- 9 B GPS 54 Delta 2 r Oct 11 Aug 22
28377 04- 26 B Aura Delta 2 r Oct 26 Aug 22
28239 04- 16 B DirecTV-7S Blok-DM r Nov Aug 22
7832 72- 58 C Landsat 1 r deb C Dec Aug 22
9017 76- 66 C Palapa 1 PKM 2005 Jan Aug 22
26560 00- 60 B Superbird 5 Ariane r 2005 Jan Aug 22
26607 00- 71 C Navstar 49 PAM-D r 2005 Jan Aug 22
23020 94- 14 B Koronas I r 2005 Feb Aug 22
23853 96- 25 A Cosmos 2332 2005 Feb Aug 22
27666 03- 5 D Navstar 51 Delta 2 r2 2005 Feb Aug 22
5978 68-116 B Intelsat 3-F2 Delta r2 2005 Mar Aug 22
23249 94- 58 A Telstar 402 2005 Apr? Aug 22
Thanks to Daniel Deak for object descriptions
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11015 = 78- 83 A = Cosmos 1030
Soviet missile early warning satellite, part of the Oko constellation.
It was launched on September 6, 1978.
(Body dia. : 1.7 m Body length : 2 m Launch mass : 2400 kg)
Notice prepared: 2004 Aug 18 07:00 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Aug 12 01:01 Aug 16 01:15 +-2d 51.6 S 13.5 E
SCC Aug 13 22:42 Aug 16 22:53 +-2d 24.7 S 17.6 E
SCC Aug 15 21:40 Aug 17 09:46 +-22h 61.6 S 73.3 W
SCC Aug 16 14:16 Aug 17 14:43 +-15h 30.7 S 141.9 E
SCC Aug 17 09:36 Aug 17 17:14 +-5h 7.1 S 98.8 W
SCC Aug 17 12:19 Aug 17 18:23 +-4h 57.5 S 125.3 E
SCC Aug 17 16:17 Aug 17 18:23 +-4h 57.6 S 125.8 E
SCC Aug 17 21:37 Aug 17 19:38 +-14m 27.0 S 63.7 E
SatEvo Aug 12 17:00 Aug 17 05:03 +-1.8d
SatEvo Aug 13 18:45 Aug 18 12:57 +-1.9d
SatEvo Aug 14 18:35 Aug 17 15:09 +-1.0d
SatEvo Aug 15 16:05 Aug 17 16:50 +-18h
SatEvo Aug 16 19:00 Aug 17 15:00 +-7h 44.3 S 149.7 E
SatEvo Aug 17 07:05 Aug 17 18:11 +-4h 33.6 S 90.7 E
SatEvo Aug 18 07:00 Aug 17 19:38 +-10m 29.6 S 65.5 E
Final elsets:
Cosmos 1030 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 1146 x 92 km
1 11015U 78083A 04230.45850201 .99999999 -46844-5 16992-2 0 9867
2 11015 61.6801 130.1786 0753258 206.3096 149.7812 14.83305109192664
Cosmos 1030 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 323 x 59 km
1 11015U 78083A 04230.78332538 .99999999 68145-5 92654-4 0 9870
2 11015 61.5883 128.8544 0200632 223.1730 146.5197 16.30681278192719
Note: The penultimate elset shows this running 23 sec late against
my previous prediction but then there was a gap, in both elsets and
SCC decay predictions, until well after the decay. Assuming that it
was still aloft at the epoch of the final elset, I estimate that
decay occurred southbound over the SW Indian Ocean to the E of
Madagascar.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26692 = 01- 4 C = GPS 50 PAM-D r
Notice prepared: 2004 Aug 27 20:40 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Aug 22 07:48 Aug 25 23:53 +-2d 25.2 N 18.9 W
SCC Aug 23 07:41 Aug 26 08:08 +-2d 37.0 S 0.7 E
SCC Aug 24 13:27 Aug 26 13:43 +-1d 2.4 N 162.1 E
SCC Aug 25 12:11 Aug 26 11:31 +-18h 7.3 N 27.9 E
SCC Aug 26 00:50 Aug 26 13:15 +-8h 35.6 N 55.6 E
SCC Aug 26 07:02 Aug 26 13:29 +-4h 31.5 N 119.0 E
SCC Aug 26 14:04 Aug 26 12:59 +-1m 32.1 N 44.0 E
SatEvo Aug 22 14:15 Aug 26 07:14 +-1.3d
SatEvo Aug 23 18:50 Aug 26 10:18 +-22h
SatEvo Aug 24 18:20 Aug 26 11:50 +-16h
SatEvo Aug 25 20:30 Aug 26 14:49 +-8h 36.7 N 79.1 E
SatEvo Aug 27 20:40 Aug 26 13:21 +-3h 36.7 N 101.6 E
Final elset:
GPS 50 PAM r 2.5 1.0 0.0 6.5 v 3.2 323 x 125 km
1 26692U 01004C 04239.23190081 .24722415 56803-5 57836-3 0 8863
2 26692 38.6341 167.1993 0150062 78.4171 283.4443 16.18497036 98774
Note: The final elset has this only 3 sec early against the prediction
I posted 9 hour earlier. I estimate that this decayed over central
China on the orbit given by the SatEvo predicted elset:
GPS 50 PAM r 2.5 1.0 0.0 6.5 v 3.2 203 x 116 km
1 26692U 01004C 04239.53828324 .73306816 22539+1 68471-3 0 98861
2 26692 38.6289 165.0540 0066588 81.2336 279.5199 16.42284291 98828
SCC's earlier decay time and much lower uncertainty must be based
on tracking data that is not reflected by the latest published elsets.
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Object: #27701 = 03- 9 D = IGS 1A Adapter
Dual-payload adapter cone that supported the IGS-1B radar satellite
over the IGS-1A reconnaisance satellite on the Japanese HII-A rocket
that was launched on March 28, 2003.
(Diameter : 4 m Length : 2 m Mass unknown)
Notice prepared: 2004 Aug 12 12:35 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Aug 5 03:07 Aug 9 00:08 +-2d 25.3 S 160.9 E
SCC Aug 5 20:25 Aug 8 20:51 +-2d 51.0 N 137.7 W
SCC Aug 6 17:42 Aug 8 14:17 +-1d 37.1 S 137.6 E
SCC Aug 7 18:42 Aug 8 19:10 +-15h 76.7 N 26.7 E
SCC Aug 8 04:38 Aug 8 17:08 +-8h 57.3 S 100.5 E
SCC Aug 8 10:40 Aug 8 16:56 +-4h 68.6 S 106.2 W
SCC Aug 8 14:28 Aug 8 16:57 +-3h 74.9 S 115.7 W
SCC Aug 8 17:29 Aug 8 17:10 +-1m 17.0 S 89.0 E
SatEvo Aug 5 20:00 Aug 9 10:24 +-1.1d
SatEvo Aug 6 22:15 Aug 8 20:21 +-15h
SatEvo Aug 12 12:35 Aug 8 16:40 +-15h 30.3 S 89.5 W
Final elset:
IGS Adapter 4.0 3.0 0.0 4.5 v 18 144 x 118 km
1 27701U 03009D 04221.65910995 .54725605 23237-5 34815-3 0 7596
2 27701 97.2119 302.2040 0019957 236.3372 123.7071 16.53103485 77287
Note: I estimate that this decayed southbound over the SE Pacific
following the southbound equator crossing on the orbit given by the
final elset.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #28400 = 04- 32 B = Progress M-50 Soyuz rocket
Notice prepared: 2004 Aug 13 19:05 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Aug 11 13:39 Aug 13 20:58 +-1d 33.5 S 23.9 W
SCC Aug 12 01:17 Aug 13 20:07 +-1d 13.9 N 138.8 E
SCC Aug 12 17:52 Aug 13 17:50 +-15h 4.2 N 20.8 W
SCC Aug 13 05:27 Aug 13 15:49 +-8h 29.3 N 140.4 W
SCC Aug 13 11:21 Aug 13 17:09 +-3h 4.0 N 176.3 E
SCC Aug 13 14:52 Aug 13 16:44 +-1h 51.1 S 77.6 E
SCC Aug 13 17:13 Aug 13 17:02 +-7m 4.0 S 171.0 E
SatEvo Aug 12 17:30 Aug 13 18:44 +-10h 36.3 N 176.9 W
SatEvo Aug 13 19:05 Aug 13 16:08 +-25m 37.1 N 29.0 W
Final elset:
Progress M-50 Soyuz r 146 x 140 km
1 28400U 04032B 04226.59010766 .16062899 12667-4 23562-3 0 158
2 28400 51.6254 32.4150 0004560 66.8433 293.6020 16.48527321 369
Note: I show this decaying while southbound near the Azores over the
Altantic on the SatEvo-predicted rev:
Progress M-50 Soyuz r 123 x 120 km
1 28400U 04032B 04226.65052175 2.23110345 50000+2 91447-3 0 90151
2 28400 51.6236 32.0675 0002195 67.1028 292.9204 16.56689230 377
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #28362 = 04- 23 B = GPS 55 Delta 2 r
Notice prepared: 2004 Sep 4 15:00 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Aug 29 06:04 Sep 2 04:25 +-2d 32.7 S 164.7 W
SCC Aug 30 08:54 Sep 2 08:49 +-2d 32.7 S 111.6 E
SCC Aug 31 01:13 Sep 1 19:39 +-1d 25.0 S 6.2 E
SCC Aug 31 16:55 Sep 1 13:24 +-14h 23.2 S 9.8 E
SCC Sep 1 07:36 Sep 1 16:47 +-10h 11.1 S 78.4 E
SCC Sep 1 12:12 Sep 1 17:32 +-3h 9.6 N 110.4 W
SCC Sep 1 14:10 Sep 1 17:34 +-2h 4.1 N 102.3 W
SCC Sep 1 18:40 Sep 1 17:37 +-1m 17.6 S 73.0 W
SatEvo Aug 31 20:25 Sep 1 17:26 +-8h 15.2 N 119.5 W
SatEvo Sep 4 15:00 Sep 1 17:25 +-1h 16.1 N 120.8 W
Final elset:
GPS 55 Del2 r 7.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 10 200 x 133 km
1 28362U 04023B 04245.57930190 .32625844 -17790-5 68026-3 0 1563
2 28362 32.8494 329.1028 0051870 123.0251 237.5481 16.39755584 10489
Note: The final elset has this running 37 seconds early against my
final prediction. I estimate that this decayed southbound over the
eastern Pacific to the SW of Mexico on the following SatEvo-predicted
rev:
GPS 55 Del2 r 7.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 10 158 x 120 km
1 28362U 04023B 04245.70067973 .80645206 67476+1 59902-3 0 91567
2 28362 32.8474 328.1685 0028934 124.4313 235.8425 16.50026672 10508
______________________________________________________________________
Return to the Alan Pickup's SatEvo Page
Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk
Thanks to Mike Rippe (Sacramento, California) for graphics