SatEvo decay list #97 (issued 2000 April 15)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 May 31, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. The atmospheric drag rates experienced by satellites were very high during the geomagnetic storm and auroral display on April 6-7. The drag has decreased since then, but decay predictions remain uncertain.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (2000) -----
Predicted Actual?
22457 92- 93 EW Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb March 31.7
25709 89-100 BE Cosmos 2053 Tsyklon deb April 1.5
24150 94- 29 GZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 2.9
24314 96- 55 B Echostar 2 Ariane 42P r April 4 Note 2
26117 00- 18 B Soyuz TM-30 Soyuz r April 5.32
5714 68- 91 CB Cosmos 249 deb April 6.0
20966 90-104 A Cosmos 2106 April 7.38
24062 94- 29 DK STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 7.8
24342 94- 29 NT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 9.0
20968 90- 81 CA FY-1B CZ deb April 10.1
23417 94- 77 H Cosmos 2297 deb April 10.6
24540 94- 29 WQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 11.2
25223 87- 68 BA Meteor 2-16 Tsyklon deb April 11.4
24879 96- 51 K Cosmos 2333 Zenit deb April 11 Note 1
16084 79- 17 AM Solwind deb April 12.8
25137 98- 2 D Skynet 4D Delta deb April 13.5 Note 1
24686 94- 29 AAU STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 17
13577 78- 26 FQ Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb April 19
22482 92- 93 FX Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb April 19
25906 93- 59 J Cosmos 2263 Proton deb April 19
4601 70- 25 D Thorad Agena D deb April 20
15983 85- 74 D Molniya 1-64 r2 April 20
19435 86- 19 UY Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb April 20
17201 86- 19 BD Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb April 22
5021 70- 89 X Cosmos 374 deb April 22
24579 94- 29 YF STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 23
22412 92- 93 DD Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb April 24
20338 89- 94 A Molniya 3-36 April 26?
20704 90- 54 E Gorizont 20 aux motor April 27
24153 94- 29 HC STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 27
23834 96- 19 B GPS 2-25 Delta 2 r1 April 28
24033 94- 29 CE STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 28
24113 94- 29 FL STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 28
25056 64- 26 J Transit 9 deb April 28 Note 2
24187 94- 29 JN STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 30
24982 94- 29 ACQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 30
22033 92- 41 D Insat 2A Spelda May 2
22507 92- 93 GS Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb May 3
17769 78- 26 HB Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb May 4
23996 94- 29 AR STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 4
4029 61- 15 JR Transit 4A deb May 9
603 63- 22 B Scout X-3 r May 14
25033 89- 85 D USA 47 deb May 14
3962 68- 91 BW Cosmos 249 deb May 15
26085 00- 8 E Globalstar A Delta r May 15
4985 70- 25 HF Thorad Agena D deb May 18
26114 00- 17 B IMAGE Delta 2 r1 May 18
22726 93- 48 D Insat 2B Spelda May 17
25235 98- 12 C SNOE Pegasus r May 20
10135 77- 61 B Cosmos 925 r May 21
13576 78- 26 FP Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb May 21
22470 92- 93 FK Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb May 21
12180 78- 26 V Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb May 22
24694 94- 29 ABC STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 22
22580 93- 16 H Cosmos 2237 Zenit deb May 23
24234 94- 29 LH STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 26
24998 94- 29 ADF STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 27
24262 94- 29 MM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 28
14555 81- 53 JN Cosmos 1275 deb May 29
24211 96- 44 D Italsat 2 Spelda May 31
10860 78- 45 A Cosmos 1005 June 2
11629 79- 99 A Cosmos 1145 June 4
23782 96- 7 B NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r June 5
24771 97- 16 D Thaicom 3 Spelda June 6
23858 96- 27 B SAX Centaur r June 7
20339 89- 94 B Molniya 3-36 r June 10?
23502 95- 8 B Cosmos 2306 r June 12
11268 79- 12 A Cosmos 1077 June 13
16934 86- 68 A Molniya 1-68 June 13?
20698 90- 61 F Cosmos 2085 aux motor June 27
13967 83- 25 D Molniya 1-57 r2 July
24321 96- 56 C GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2 July
24878 97- 35 C GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D) July
25123 97- 85 A Early Bird July
25739 99- 26 E Terriers adapter cone July
21025 90-112 F Raduga 26 aux motor August
23941 96- 37 B TOMS r August
25470 98- 51 D Iridium 79 September
20399 89-101 E Cosmos 2054 aux mot October
20255 89- 78 A Molniya 1-76 October
25032 97- 67 C GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2 October
25529 98- 66 C Iridium 85 October
Notes
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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk