SatEvo Decay List #92

SatEvo decay list #92 (issued 2000 January 30)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 March 15, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

  1962   65- 82 GX  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb                 January 15.96
 25796   80- 89 CK  Cosmos 1220 deb                 January 16.5
 25663   94- 29 AEG STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 17
  7842   72- 58 N   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb             January 18.9
 24240   94- 29 LP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 19.5
 24111   94- 29 FJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 21
 26044   99- 73 C   C 2368 Molniya plat             January 22.22
  7969   75- 56 B   Cosmos 744 r                    January 22.70
 24368   94- 29 PV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 23
 25950   99- 59 B   Orion 2 Ariane 44LP r           January 23
 22346   92- 93 AK  C 2227 Zenit deb                January 23.6
 24024   94- 29 BV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 24
 20759   90- 43 L   Macsat Scout G-1 deb            January 26
 26055   99- 47 G   Yamal 101 aux motor             January 26?   Note 4
 13964   83- 25 A   Molniya 1-57                    January 26.83
 16885   86- 57 A   Molniya 1-67                    January 27.62 Note 2
 24388   94- 29 QR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 29    Note 4
 25220   87- 68 AX  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 30
 25176   98- 11 B   COMETS H2 r           February  1
 24614   94- 29 ZS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  2
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2     February  4
 24148   94- 29 GX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  4
 22890   83- 75 G   Cosmos 1484 deb       February  6
 24331   94- 29 NG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  7
 26043   99- 73 B   C 2368 Molniya-M r1   February  7
 22822   93- 11 H   Astro D M-3S2 deb     February  8
  3343   68- 66 E   Explr 39 Scout deb    February 10
  9854   77- 15 B   Cosmos 895 r          February 18
 24054   94- 29 DB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 18
 25911   99- 49 E   Glblstar 33 Soyuz r   February 19
 17124   86- 19 U   Spot 1 Ariane deb     February 20
 19304   61- 15 MD  Transit 4A deb        February 20
 25769   99- 30 B   Starshine             February 21
 24528   94- 29 WC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 22
 25752   99- 28 H   USA 144 deb           February 23  Note 3
 23887   96- 34 F   Gorizont 32 aux motor    March  2
 25947   99- 58 E   Glblstar 31 Soyuz r      March  6
 22876   93- 67 B   Cosmos 2265 r            March 10
 20680   74- 89 FE  Thorad Delta 1 deb       March 11
 24481   94- 29 UE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 14
 24230   94- 29 LD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 22
 15977   85- 74 A   Molniya 1-64             March?
 25965   99- 62 E   Glblstar 29 Soyuz r      April  3
 11331   79- 32 A   Cosmos 1093              April  4
 20919   90- 93 B   Inmarsat2-F1 Delta2 r    April 26
 20966   90-104 A   Cosmos 2106                May  8
 10135   77- 61 B   Cosmos 925 r              July
 10860   78- 45 A   Cosmos 1005               July
 11629   79- 99 A   Cosmos 1145             August
 23502   95-  8 B   Cosmos 2306 r           August
 11268   79- 12 A   Cosmos 1077          September
 23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r                 October
 25123   97- 85 A   Early Bird             October
Notes


1. Mir no longer appears in this list. Its orbit was boosted from
308 x 302 km to 324 x 302 km on January 25, and it is intended to
raise to further (to 400 km?) in the next few weeks
2. The decay of #16885 (86- 57 A = Molniya 1-67) was observed as it
moved north-eastwards over Western Australia.
3. Elsets for this previously classified debris object became available
on 2000 January 24.
4. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.


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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk



Last updated: 2000 January 30