SatEvo decay list #91 (issued 2000 January 15)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 February 29, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. In general, drag rates have been lower than expected, with the result that the predicted lifetimes have slipped later.
# Designation Name --- Decay (1999/2000) ---
Predicted Actual?
14447 71- 15 CR Cosmos 397 deb December 26.5
26041 99- 72 B C 2367 Tsyklon-2 r December 26.85
15707 83- 44 AA Cosmos 1461 deb December 27.4
24522 94- 29 UW STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 30
25423 98- 46 L Orbcomm Pegasus deb January 1.4
21960 85-118 M C 1710 SL-12 deb January 1
24620 94- 29 ZY STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 5
7847 72- 58 T Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb January 5.6
22564 93- 15 B UFO 1 r1 January 6.22
1962 65- 82 GX OV2-1/LCS 2 deb January 16
25796 80- 89 CK Cosmos 1220 deb January 16
25663 94- 29 AEG STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 17
16885 86- 57 A Molniya 1-67 January 18?
7842 72- 58 N Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb January 19
24240 94- 29 LP STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 19
24111 94- 29 FJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 21
26044 99- 73 C C 2368 Molniya plat January 22
7969 75- 56 B Cosmos 744 r January 23
24368 94- 29 PV STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 23
24388 94- 29 QR STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 25
13964 83- 25 A Molniya 1-57 January 26?
20759 90- 43 L Macsat Scout G-1 deb January 26
22346 92- 93 AK C 2227 Zenit deb January 28
25220 87- 68 AX Meteor 2-16 deb January 28
24614 94- 29 ZS STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 31
25176 98- 11 B COMETS H2 r February 1
24148 94- 29 GX STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 4
24024 94- 29 BV STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 5
22822 93- 11 H Astro D M-3S2 deb February 6
22890 83- 75 G Cosmos 1484 deb February 6
24331 94- 29 NG STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 7
22702 93- 42 C GPS 2-21 Delta r2 February 8
3343 68- 66 E Explr 39 Scout deb February 9
26043 99- 73 B C 2368 Molniya-M r1 February 10
9854 77- 15 B Cosmos 895 r February 13
24054 94- 29 DB STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 17
17124 86- 19 U Spot 1 Ariane deb February 15
19304 61- 15 MD Transit 4A deb February 15
25911 99- 49 E Glblstar 33 Soyuz r February 19
24528 94- 29 WC STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 21
25769 99- 30 B Starshine February 23
24230 94- 29 LD STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 26
23887 96- 34 F Gorizont 32 aux motor February 29
25947 99- 58 E Glblstar 31 Soyuz r March 2
22876 93- 67 B Cosmos 2265 r March 14
15977 85- 74 A Molniya 1-64 March?
25965 99- 62 E Glblstar 29 Soyuz r March 25
11331 79- 32 A Cosmos 1093 April 5
20919 90- 93 B Inmarsat2-F1 Delta2 r April 22
16609 86- 17 A Mir April 26 Note 1
20966 90-104 A Cosmos 2106 May
10135 77- 61 B Cosmos 925 r June
10860 78- 45 A Cosmos 1005 July
11629 79- 99 A Cosmos 1145 August
23502 95- 8 B Cosmos 2306 r August
23941 96- 37 B TOMS r August
11268 79- 12 A Cosmos 1077 September
25123 97- 85 A Early Bird September
Note
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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk