SatEvo decay list #89 (issued 1999 December 11)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 January 21, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name              --- Decay (1999/2000) ---
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 22847   92- 38 C   Sampex Scout G-1 deb           November 24.6
 14610   83-113 E   DMSP F7 deb                    November 27.6
 25957   99- 61 B   Shenzhou CZ-1F r               November 27.85 Note 3
 25976   97- 79 K   Cosmos 2347 deb                November 28
 25969   97- 79 C   Cosmos 2347 deb                November 29
  7853   72- 58 Z   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb            November 30.3
 25014   97- 63 B   STEP M4 Pegasus r              November 30.39
 25972   97- 79 F   Cosmos 2347 deb                November 30
 25914   99- 50 B   EchoStar 5 Centaur r           November 30.93
  1844   65-106 B   Cosmos 100 r                   December  1.15
 19579   78-110 AK  C 1045 SL-14 deb               December  1    Note 2
 25971   97- 79 E   Cosmos 2347 deb                December  1
 25960   99- 61 E   Shenzhou Orbital Module        December  1.97
 22924   93- 74 C   USA 97 Centaur r2              December  5.28
 22534   93- 11 D   Astro D M-3S2 deb              December  7
 24084   94- 29 EF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December  8    Note 1
 22365   92- 93 BE  C 2227 Zenit deb               December  9.1  Note 1
 25975   97- 79 J   Cosmos 2347 deb                December  9.5  Note 1
 25970   97- 79 D   Cosmos 2347 deb                December 11.0
 25923   99- 52 B   Tlstr 7 Ariane r               December 11.10
 22334   92- 93 X   C 2227 Zenit deb               December 11.3
 25088   97- 79 A   Cosmos 2347                    December 11.53
 24034   94- 29 CF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 12
 19377   88- 69 A   Molniya 1-73          December 16
 23008   92- 93 JE  C 2227 Zenit deb      December 16
 25058   65- 98 L   Alouette 2 deb        December 16
  1832   65- 82 DX  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb       December 17
 23935   78- 96 F   Tiros N deb           December 17
 24109   94- 29 FG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 18
  7960   72- 58 CQ  Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb   December 19
 24372   94- 29 PZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 19
 25974   97- 79 H   Cosmos 2347 deb       December 19
  4869   70- 25 EZ  Thorad Agena D deb    December 20
 25423   98- 46 L   Orbcomm Pegasus deb   December 21
 25790   99- 34 B   QuikScat Titan 2 r    December 21
  4981   70- 25 HB  Thorad Agena D deb    December 22
 21960   85-118 M   C 1710 SL-12 deb      December 23
 16308   79- 17 BX  Solwind deb           December 25
 24110   94- 29 FH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 25
 15707   83- 44 AA  Cosmos 1461 deb       December 26
 24620   94- 29 ZY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 26
 24225   94- 29 KY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 27
 14447   71- 15 CR  Cosmos 397 deb        December 30
 25220   87- 68 AX  Meteor 2-16 deb       December 30
 24522   94- 29 UW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  1
  7847   72- 58 T   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb    January  2
 22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1               January  4
 24111   94- 29 FJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  4
 25796   80- 89 CK  Cosmos 1220 deb        January  4
  7842   72- 58 N   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb    January  6
  1962   65- 82 GX  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb        January  7
 24240   94- 29 LP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  7
 13964   83- 25 A   Molniya 1-57           January  8?
 22346   92- 93 AK  C 2227 Zenit deb       January 10
 24368   94- 29 PV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 10
 24230   94- 29 LD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 11
 24148   94- 29 GX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 12
 24388   94- 29 QR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 12
 20759   90- 43 L   Macsat Scout G-1 deb   January 13
 16885   86- 57 A   Molniya 1-67           January 14?
  3343   68- 66 E   Explr 39 Scout deb     January 15
  7969   75- 56 B   Cosmos 744 r           January 15
 24614   94- 29 ZS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 15
 22890   83- 75 G   Cosmos 1484 deb        January 18
 22822   93- 11 H   Astro D M-3S2 deb      January 21
  9854   77- 15 B   Cosmos 895 r           January 26
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2      January 27
 25176   98- 11 B   COMETS H2 r           February  1
 25769   99- 30 B   Starshine             February  7
 25911   99- 49 E   Glblstar 33 Soyuz r   February  7
 25947   99- 58 E   Glblstar 31 Soyuz r   February 20
 22876   93- 67 B   Cosmos 2265 r         February 21
 20919   90- 93 B   Inmarsat2-F1 Delta2 r    March  3
 11331   79- 32 A   Cosmos 1093              March 15
 15977   85- 74 A   Molniya 1-64             March
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                      April     Note 4
 25965   99- 62 E   Glblstar 29 Soyuz r      April
Notes


1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. No recent elsets.
3. The decay time for the Shenzhou Long March rocket (#25957 = 99- 61 B)
is based on my SatEvo analysis of the final elsets. There are reports 
that the decay was widely observed from SE Spain at November 27 21:30 UTC 
(November 27.90). SpaceCom's final decay notice claims that this decayed
at 17:44 UTC (November 27.74).
4. Mir was boosted on December 8 and 9, raising its orbit from 323 x 319 km
to 333 x 323 km. The estimate above is on the (probably unrealistic) basis 
that there are no further manoeuvres.


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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk



Last updated: 1999 December 11