SatEvo decay list #86 (issued 1999 October 23)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 1999 November 30, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24445   94- 29 TB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October  2    Note 2
 25918   99- 48 F   Foton 12 deb                    October  3.0
 15076   84- 63 E   Raduga 15 aux motor             October  4.03
  9815   76-126 AB  Cosmos 886 deb                  October  4.5
 24260   94- 29 MK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October  4
 25717   89-100 BN  C 2053 Tsyklon deb              October  7.9  Note 1
 25916   99- 48 D   Foton 12 deb                    October 10.89
 24168   94- 29 HT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 12
 25228   87- 68 BF  Meteor 2-16 deb                 October 13
 25680   99- 19 E   Glblstar 45 Soyuz r1            October 13.99
 21379   75- 52 CZ  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb            October 14
 17038   86- 79 A   Molniya 3-30                    October 15.33
 25507   98- 60 C   SCD-2 Pegasus deb               October 17    Note 1
 24235   94- 29 LJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 18
 24632   94- 29 AAL STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 21
 25917   99- 48 E   Foton 12 deb                    October 22.66
 25952   99- 54 D   Resurs F-1 M deb                October 22.8
 12134   81-  2 B   Molniya 3-14 r2                 October 23.00 Note 3
 25500   98- 25 F   C 2350 aux motor                October 23.34
 25951   99- 54 C   Resurs F-1 M deb                October 23.67
 24349   94- 29 PA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 24
 25921   99- 51 C   Ikonos Athena deb      October 24.9
 24744   97- 10 A   Zeya                   October 25.0
 25550   98- 69 B   SAC-A                  October 25.0
  5093   70- 91 AQ  Cosmos 375 deb         October 26
 24355   94- 29 PG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 26
 13738   82-118 C   DMSP F6 deb            October 27
 25889   99- 44 A   Cosmos 2365            October 28
 24586   94- 29 YN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 29
  5533   71- 15 BX  Cosmos 397 deb         October 30
 24128   94- 29 GB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 30
 25953   99- 54 E   Resurs F-1 M deb       October 30
 24152   94- 29 HB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 31
 24832   97- 28 E   C 2344 SOZ ullage r   November  1
 23977   94- 29 X   STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  2
 24590   94- 29 YS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  2
 23563   91- 47 E   PAM-D deb             November  4
 18128   87- 53 C   DMSP F8 deb           November  5
 24972   97- 57 B   IRS-1D r              November  5
 24993   94- 29 ADA STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  5?
  7944   72- 58 CK  Lansat 1 Delta 1 deb  November  7
 24196   94- 29 JX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  7
 25494   98- 56 D   Eutelsat W2 Spelda    November  7
 22386   92- 93 CB  C 2227 Zenit deb      November 12
 24266   94- 29 MR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 12
 24531   94- 29 WF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 12
 23995   94- 29 AQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 14
 22661   93- 16 AG  C 2237 Zenit deb      November 15
  4222   69- 97 B   AZUR Scout r          November 16
 22434   92- 93 EB  C 2227 Zenit deb      November 16
 24291   96- 50 A   Microsat              November 17
 24267   94- 29 MS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 18
 22016   92- 39 C   GPS 2-14 Delta r2     November 22
 24534   94- 29 WJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 22
 25551   98- 69 C   MightySat             December  1
 22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1              December 11
 25014   97- 63 B   STEP M4 Pegasus r     December 11
 19377   88- 69 A   Molniya 1-73          December 15?
  1844   65-106 B   Cosmos 100 r          December 17
                                           (2000)
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2      January
 25790   99- 34 B   QuikScat Titan 2 r     January
 25176   98- 11 B   COMETS H2 r           February
  7969   75- 56 B   Cosmos 744 r          February
  9854   77- 15 B   Cosmos 895 r          February
 25911   99- 49 E   Glblstar 33 Soyuz r   February
 25769   99- 30 B   Starshine                March
 11331   79- 32 A   Cosmos 1093        March-April
 22876   93- 67 B   Cosmos 2265 r      March-April
 25947   99- 58 E   Gstar31? Soyuz r   March-April     
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                 April-June
Notes


1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. #24445 = 94- 29 TB was listed as decaying on September 30 in my
previous decay list. After a gap of three days, however, further 
appeared and showed it on the brink of decay.
3. The re-entry of #12134, Molniya 3-14 r2, was observed from the 
Johannesburg/Pretoria area of South Africa at midnight UTC
(02:00 local time) on October 22/23. The sightings were of a very 
bright object followed by 8-10 lesser objects. I also understand that 
a traffic officer secured some video footage and that this has 
appeared on TV. Thanks to Claire Flanagan of the Johannesburg 
Planetarium for connecting the reports she received with the
prediction of this decay on my Decay Watch page.


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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk



Last updated: 1999 October 23