SatEvo Decay List #78

SatEvo decay list #78 (issued 1999 June 6)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 1999 July 15, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 25763   79-104 E   CAT 1 Ariane 1 deb                  May 16
 14492   77- 65 FH  Himawari 1 Delta deb                May 19? Notes 1,2
 25456   87- 68 CD  Meteor 2-16 deb                     May 20  Note 2
 25697   89-100 AS  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb                May 21  Note 2
 25742   99- 27 C   Nimiq 1 Proton platform             May 21.60
 25741   99- 27 B   Nimiq 1 Proton r                    May 22.90
  8538   72- 58 GM  Landsat 1 Delta deb                 May 23
 22497   92- 93 GG  C 2227 Zenit deb                    May 23  Note 2
 19532   88- 89 B   NOAA 11 deb                         May 24
 25708   89-100 BD  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb                May 29  Note 2
 13469   81- 53 FR  Cosmos 1275 deb                     May 30
 25139   98-  2 F   Skynet 4D Delta 2 deb               May 30
 25683   99- 20 B   Landsat 7 Delta 2 r                 May 30.89
 24319   96- 49 E   FAST Pegasus deb                   June  1
 25252   87- 68 BV  Meteor 2-16 deb                    June  1? Note 1
 25745   99- 28 B   USA 144 Titan 4 r                  June  1.50
  5432   70- 89 BY  Cosmos 374 deb                     June  2  Note 2
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                             June  3.1? Notes 2,3
 20055   89- 43 D   Molniya 3-35 r2                    June  3.93
 25055   78- 64 J   Seasat 1 deb                       June  4  Note 2
 25713   89-100 BJ  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb               June  4  Note 2
 25728   99- 24 B   Orion 3 Delta 3 r                  June  5.90
 24162   94- 29 HM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June  7
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r           June  8
 25690   86- 17 ND  Mir deb                   June  8
 25185   87- 68 L   Meteor 2-16 deb           June  9
 25716   89-100 BM  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb      June 10
 25701   89-100 AW  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb      June 12
 24203   94- 29 KE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 14
 25700   89-100 AV  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb      June 16
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r              June 15
 24088   94- 29 EK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 17
 25718   89-100 BP  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb      June 18
 21521   75- 52 GS  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb      June 20
 22948   83- 75 AM  Cosmos 1484 deb           June 20
 23558   86- 17 JE  GFZ 1                     June 21
 24173   94- 29 HY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 21
 24609   94- 29 ZM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 21
 12280   78- 26 DZ  Landsat 3 Delta deb       June 22
 23690   86- 17 JM  Mir deb                   June 22
 24096   94- 29 ET  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 23
 24589   94- 29 YR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 24
 25711   89-100 BG  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb      June 24
 21073   90-105 S   DMSP F10 deb              June 26
 24001   94- 29 AW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 26
 24248   94- 29 LX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 26
 24490   94- 29 UP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 26
 25710   89-100 BF  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb      June 26
 25687   86- 17 NA  Mir deb                   June 27
 19173   64-  6 S   Elektron 1 deb            June 29
 25719   89-100 BQ  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb      June 29
 23540   83- 75 BD  Cosmos 1484 deb           June 30
 24193   94- 29 JU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 30
 22902   83- 75 U   Cosmos 1484 deb           July  1
 25670   99- 17 B   DSP 19 Titan 4 r          July  1
 23311   85-118 W   C 1710 Proton deb         July  2
 12133   81-  2 A   Molniya 3-14              July  3
 25198   87- 68 Z   Meteor 2-16 deb           July  3
 24003   94- 29 AY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July  4
 25704   89-100 AZ  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb      July  8
 25703   89-100 AY  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb      July  8
 25686   86- 17 MZ  Mir deb                   July 13
 14168   83- 65 C   Galaxy 1 PAM D r          July 20
 25685   99- 21 A   Sputnik 99              August  3
 25625   99-  4 E   Glblstar 36 Soyuz r1    August 19
 15076   84- 63 E   Raduga 15 aux motor  September
 22878   93- 68 B   GPS 2-23 Delta r1    September
 25500   98- 25 F   C 2350 aux motor     September
  4222   69- 97 B   AZUR Scout r           October
 24972   97- 57 B   IRS-1D r               October
 25550   98- 69 B   SAC-A                  October
 25653   99- 12 E   Glblstar 22 Soyuz r1   October
 24744   97- 10 A   Zeya                  November
 22016   92- 39 C   Navstar 26 Del 2 r2   December
 24832   97- 28 E   C 2344 SOZ ullage r   December
 25551   98- 69 C   MightySat             December
 25680   99- 19 E   Glblstar 19 Soyuz r1  December
  1844   65-106 B   Cosmos 100 r          2000 Jan - Feb
 22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1              2000 Jan - Feb
 24291   96- 50 A   Microsat              2000 Jan - Feb
 25014   97- 63 B   STEP M4 Pegasus r     2000 Jan - Feb
 25176   98- 11 B   COMETS H2 r           2000 Jan - Feb
  7969   75- 56 B   Cosmos 744 r          2000 Mar - Apr
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                   2000 Mar - Apr
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2     2000 Mar - Apr

Notes

1. No recent elsets.
2. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
3. The final elset for Granat is dated 1999 May 21. It is possible that this decayed at the following perigee at May 25.9 or the next one at May 30.0. My analyses over recent months had yielded a consistent decay prediction for June 3, and I'll stick with this until persuaded otherwise.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk

Last updated: 1999 June 6