SatEvo decay list #71 (issued 1999 February 21)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 1999 April 15, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. Drag rates increased sharply in the past week as solar activity reached its highest level of the current solar cycle.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (1999) -----
Predicted Actual?
22584 93- 17 D GPS 2-19 r2 February 10.61
16187 85- 99 A Molniya 1-65 February 13.64
24228 94- 29 LB STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 14
19771 89- 4 E Gorizont 17 aux mot February 15.29
25628 99- 5 C Telstar 6 Proton platform February 15.81
25627 99- 5 B Telstar 6 Proton r February 16.95
25217 87- 68 AU Meteor 2-16 deb February 17 Note 2
23075 89- 89 BW COBE deb February 18? Note 1
13103 82- 6 C OPS 2849 deb February 18.52
5399 71- 67 L OV1-20/OV1-21 deb February 19 Note 2
19560 88- 81 E GSTAR 3 Ariane 3 deb February 19? Note 1
25633 99- 7 B Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz r February 21.7
24224 94- 29 KX STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 22
19145 87- 20 BE Cosmos 1823 deb February 23
22440 92- 93 EH C 2227 Zenit deb February 23
14356 81- 53 HS Cosmos 1275 deb February 24
23973 94- 29 T STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 24
23993 94- 29 AP STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 26
25186 87- 68 M Meteor 2-16 deb February 26? Note 1
15551 69- 82 KQ OPS 1807 T-Agena deb March 3
25197 87- 68 Y Meteor 2-16 deb March 4
16683 86- 31 A Molniya 3-28 March 5? Note 1
24369 94- 29 PW STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 5
24270 94- 29 MV STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 8
24430 94- 29 SJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 11
25472 98- 51 F Iridium 82 Delta r March 16
175 61- 15 AZ Transit 4a r deb March 17
23907 96- 29 B NOSS 2-3 r March 17
15440 84-123 B NOAA 9 deb March 19
25166 98- 8 E Globalstar 1 Delta r March 19
25125 97- 85 C Earlybird 1 Start 1 deb March 21
25562 98- 71 C SWAS Pegasus deb March 24
25452 87- 68 BZ Meteor 2-16 deb March 26
25565 98- 69 E STS-88 deb (socket) March 31
25607 99- 1 C MPL Delta 2 r1 April 4
25580 98- 74 D Iridm 11A Smart Disp April 9
8940 75- 4 W Landsat 2 Delta 1 deb April 10
23578 94- 85 Y Rad Rosto deb April 10
7418 74- 66 B Cosmos 673 r April 26
22583 93- 17 C GPS 2-19 r1 May 3
14329 83- 94 B Satcom 2R Delta r May 12
12519 81- 54 E Molniya 3-16 r2 May 13
8755 76- 24 B Cosmos 808 r May 21
25347 98- 32 F Iridium 70 Delta r May 26
20352 89- 96 A Granat June 3
4120 69- 84 B Meteor 1-2 r June
23186 94- 43 B APStar 1 CZ-3 r June
25625 99- 4 E Globalstar M36 Soyuz r1 July
Notes
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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk