SatEvo Decay List #70

SatEvo decay list #70 (issued 1999 February 7)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 1999 March 31, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. Once again, predicted decay dates have slipped, particularly for decayers (mainly debris objects) with relatively high perigees.

   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 23066   89- 89 BM  COBE deb                        January 17
 25579   98- 74 C   Iridium 11A CZ-2C r             January 20.88
 24532   94- 29 WG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 21
 25247   87- 68 BQ  Meteor 2-16 deb                 January 21
 23972   94- 29 S   STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 22
 25193   87- 68 U   Meteor 2-16 deb                 January 24
 24038   94- 29 CK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 26
 25065   97- 74 C   ETS-7 r                         January 27.77
 24542   94- 29 WS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 28
  3564   68- 97 Q   Cosmos 252 deb                  January 29.0
 25617   99-  2 B   ROCSAT-1 Orb Adj Module         January 29.95
 25190   87- 68 R   Meteor 2-16 deb                 January 30? Notes 3,4
 25211   87- 68 AN  Meteor 2-16 deb                 January 30  Note 3
 24019   94- 29 BQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 31
 24565   94- 29 XR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             February  2
 24405   94- 29 RJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             February  4
 23529   95- 13 B   Intlst 705 Centaur r           February  6.52
 22584   93- 17 D   GPS 2-19 r2           February 10
 19771   89-  4 E   Gorizont 17 aux mot   February 16
 25217   87- 68 AU  Meteor 2-16 deb       February 16
 24228   94- 29 LB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 14
 23075   89- 89 BW  COBE deb              February 18? Note 2
  5399   71- 67 L   OV1-20/OV1-21 deb     February 19
 13103   82-  6 C   OPS 2849 deb          February 20  Note 5
 16187   85- 99 A   Molniya 1-65          February 20?
 19560   88- 81 E   GSTAR 3 Ariane 3 deb  February 20
 15551   69- 82 KQ  OPS 1807 T-Agena deb  February 21
 25186   87- 68 M   Meteor 2-16 deb       February 24
 24224   94- 29 KX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 26
 14356   81- 53 HS  Cosmos 1275 deb       February 27
 16683   86- 31 A   Molniya 3-28             March  1?
 22440   92- 93 EH  C 2227 Zenit deb         March  3
 23973   94- 29 T   STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March  5
 25213   87- 68 AQ  Meteor 2-16 deb          March  5
 19145   87- 20 BE  Cosmos 1823 deb          March  7
 23993   94- 29 AP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March  8
 23907   96- 29 B   NOSS 2-3 r               March  9
 25197   87- 68 Y   Meteor 2-16 deb          March  9
 24369   94- 29 PW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 15
 24430   94- 29 SJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 15
   175   61- 15 AZ  Transit 4a r deb         March 17
 15440   84-123 B   NOAA 9 deb               March 20
 24270   94- 29 MV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 21
 25166   98-  8 E   Globalstar 1 Delta r     March 21
 25472   98- 51 F   Iridium 82 Delta r       March 26
 25452   87- 68 BZ  Meteor 2-16 deb          March 30
 25607   99-  1 C   MPL Delta 2 r1           April  7
 25580   98- 74 D   Iridm 11A Smart Disp     April 14
  7418   74- 66 B   Cosmos 673 r               May  4
 22583   93- 17 C   GPS 2-19 r1                May  6
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2            May 15
 14329   83- 94 B   Satcom 2R Delta r          May 19
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                    June  3
  8755   76- 24 B   Cosmos 808 r              June
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r           June
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r        June
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r              July

Notes

1. After recent orbital boosts, Mir is no longer in danger of an unforced re-entry during the next few months and has been removed from this list.
2. No recent elsets.
3. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
4. I decayed #24693 = 94- 29 ABB and #25190 = 87- 68 R on "December 31?" in my SatEvo decay list #68. SpaceCom has published later elsets for both objects so my earlier announcements were premature. #24693 is still in orbit and may decay in April. #25190 probably decayed about January 30.
5. Elsets for #13103 = 82- 6 C (OPS 2849 deb) appear to have been declassified on February 3 to celebrate its inclusion in the SpaceCom/GSFC 60-Day Decay Forecast.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk

Last updated: 1999 February 7