SatEvo Decay List #67

SatEvo decay list #67 (issued 1998 December 20)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by February 10, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name               ---- Decay (1998/9) ----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24264   94- 29 MP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December  1
 25426   94- 29 ADS STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December  2?  Notes 2,3
 11240   79-  4 A   Molniya 3-11                   December  2.80
 25294   86- 17 MQ  Mir VDU                        December  2.89
 24237   94- 29 LL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December  4
 21337   75- 52 BF  Nimbus 6 Delta deb             December  4.7
 25534   86- 17 MV  Mir deb                        December  5.3
  8368   75-100 C   GOES 1 Delta 1 r2              December  6.30 Note 4
 23067   89- 89 BN  COBE deb                       December  6?  Notes 2,3
 24008   94- 29 BD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December  7
 24816   95- 71 D   Cosmos 2326 deb                December 11.7
 22439   92- 93 EG  C 2227 Zenit deb               December 13
 25570   98- 67 C   ISS deb                        December 14
 25443   94- 29 ADY STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 15?  Notes 2,3
 22928   93- 77 B   Telstar 401 Centaur r          December 17.31
 24463   94- 29 TL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 18   Note 3
 25362   94- 29 ADP STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 18?  Notes 2,3
 25499   98- 25 E   C 2350 aux motor               December 19.44
  3508   68- 91 E   Cosmos 249 deb        December 21
 25581   98- 74 E   Iridium deb           December 21?  Note 6
  9794   70-102 F   Cosmos 381 r deb      December 22
 24624   94- 29 AAC STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 22?  Note 2
 25210   87- 68 AM  Meteor 2-16 deb       December 23
 25582   98- 74 F   Iridium deb           December 23?  Note 6
 24178   94- 29 JD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 24
 25583   98- 74 G   Iridium deb           December 24?  Note 6
 25584   98- 74 H   Iridium deb           December 24?  Note 6
 25441   94- 29 ADW STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 25?  Note 2
 24086   94- 29 EH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 26?  Note 2
  3381   65- 82 MT  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb       December 27
 24475   94- 29 TY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 27
 25120   97- 84 J   Orbcomm 8 Pegasus r   December 28
  2988   65- 82 MT  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb       December 30
 23539   95- 16 D   Brazilsat B2 Spelda   December 30
  4610   70- 25 N   Nimbus 4 Agena deb    December 31
 24693   94- 29 ABB STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 31?  Note 2
 25190   87- 68 R   Meteor 2-16 deb       December 31?  Note 2
 25572   98- 73 B   MCO Delta 2 r1         January  1
  9974   68- 97 DW  Cosmos 252 deb         January  1
 22492   92- 93 GB  Cosmos 2227 deb        January  2
 21083   90- 81 CJ  FY-1B CZ-4 deb         January  3
 25192   87- 68 T   Meteor 2-16 deb        January  3
 24101   94- 29 EY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  4
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6             January  5
 24345   94- 29 NW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  5
 25193   87- 68 U   Meteor 2-16 deb        January  5
 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r           January  6
 25421   98- 46 J   Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r   January  6
 24159   94- 29 HJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  7
 25455   87- 68 CC  Meteor 2-16 deb        January  7
 25532   98- 66 F   Iridium 2 Delta r      January  9
 25247   87- 68 BQ  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 10
 25533   98- 62 C   Sputnik 41             January 10
 25440   94- 29 ADV STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 11
 23066   89- 89 BM  COBE deb               January 13
 25211   87- 68 AN  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 14
 22896   83 -75 N   Cosmos 1484 deb        January 17
 25230   87- 68 BH  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 17
 25579   98- 74 C   Iridium CZ-2C r ?      January 17?  Note 6
 24038   94- 29 CK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 20
 24532   94- 29 WG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 22
 16187   85- 99 A   Molniya 1-65           January 24?  Note 5
 25065   97- 74 C   ETS-7 r                January 24
 25186   87- 68 M   Meteor 2-16 deb        January 26
 25218   87- 68 AV  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 26
 23972   94- 29 S   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 27
 23974   94- 29 U   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 27
  3564   68- 97 Q   Cosmos 252 deb         January 28
 24369   94- 29 PW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 28
 24542   94- 29 WS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 29
 25207   87- 68 AJ  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 29
 24565   94- 29 XR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 30
 24019   94- 29 BQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  1
 23075   89- 89 BW  COBE deb              February  2
  5399   71- 67 L   OV1-20/OV1-21 deb     February  3
 25452   87- 68 BZ  Meteor 2-16 deb       February  3
 24405   94- 29 RJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  5
 19145   87- 20 BE  Cosmos 1823 deb       February  6
 25562   98- 71 C   SWAS Pegasus deb      February 10
 22584   93- 17 D   GPS 2-19 r2           February 12
 16683   86- 31 A   Molniya 3-28          February 20?  Note 5
 23907   96- 29 B   NOSS 2-3 r            February 26
 25472   98- 51 F   Iridium 82 Delta r       March  3
 23529   95- 13 B   Intlst 705 Centaur r     March  6
 25166   98-  8 E   Globalstar 1 Delta r     March 27
  7418   74- 66 B   Cosmos 673 r             April
  8755   76- 24 B   Cosmos 808 r             April
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2          April
 14329   83- 94 B   Satcom 2R Delta r        April
 22583   93- 17 C   GPS 2-19 r1              April
 25580   98- 74 D   Iridium Smart Disp ?     April?  Note 6
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r               May
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r         May
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                    June
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r           June
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                       July   Note 1

Notes

1. The predicted decay of Mir (#16609 = 86- 17 A) is on the basis that it is not manoeuvred in orbit before atmospheric drag brings it down normally. In fact, I understand that it is intended to raise the orbit on December 22 and again in 1999 March.
2. No recent elsets.
3. USSPACECOM has yet to confirm this decay.
4. #8368 was identified incorrectly as "GEOS 1 Delta 1 r2" in my previous lists.
5. Thanks to Michael Earl for alerting me to the decays of Molniyas 1-65 and 3-28.
6. The identities of the objects from the 98- 74 Iridium launch on December 19 have yet to be confirmed. Also, too few elsets have appeared to allow a reliable estimate of their decay.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk

Last updated: 1998 December 20