SatEvo Decay List #64


SatEvo decay list #64 (issued 1998 October 29)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

Publication of this list was delayed due to my participation in the Eurosom 3 conference, held in Edinburgh over the weekend of October 24/25. I intend to post the next list about November 14.

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by December 16, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name               ---- Decay (1998/9) ----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24533   94- 29 WH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October  7
 24250   94- 29 LZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October  8
 24456   95- 71 C   Cosmos 2326 deb                 October  9.6
 23202   94- 49 D   BzlSt B1 Ariane deb             October 10.0
 25487   98- 54 C   Molniya 1T? platform            October 10.28
 24396   94- 29 QZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 13
 25486   98- 54 B   Molniya 1T? Molniya r           October 14.13
 24058   94- 29 DF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 17
 17342   86- 19 DP  SPOT 1 Ariane 1 deb             October 17.9
 23771   95- 11 J   SFU deb                         October 18.1
 20116   89- 52 F   Gorizont 18 aux motor           October 18.22
 24691   94- 29 AAZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 19
 24783   95-  8 J   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 20.2
 25052   97- 71 D   Sirius 2 deb (Spelda)           October 21.4
 22683   89- 89 E   COBE deb                        October 21
 25474   98- 52 B   PanAmSat 7 Ariane 44LP r        October 26.22
 25513   98- 62 B   Progress M-40 Soyuz r           October 26.71
 20979   90-105 B   DMSP F10 deb                    October 27
 24030   94- 29 CB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 27
 24698   94- 29 ABG STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 27
 22920   90- 37 C   HST array                       October 28.2
 24232   94- 29 LF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 28
 24090   94- 29 EM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 29
 18872   77- 65 FW  Himawari 1 Delta deb   October 30?
 23084   89- 89 CF  COBE deb               October 31
 24785   95-  8 L   Cosmos 2306 deb       November  1
 25100   97- 58 D   Inspektor             November  1.7
 24789   95-  8 M   Cosmos 2306 deb       November  2
 24077   94- 29 DY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  6
 24850   94- 29 ACA STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  6
 24142   94- 29 GR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  7
 25335   94- 29 ADL STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  7
 25483   98- 53 J   Orbcomm 21 Pegasus r  November  7
 25457   87- 68 CE  Meteor 2-16 deb       November  9
 25231   87- 68 BJ  Meteor 2-16 deb       November 11
 23078   89- 89 BZ  COBE deb              November 10?
 24087   94- 29 EJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 11
 24782   95-  8 H   Cosmos 2306 deb       November 11
 20546   90- 28 A   Pegsat                November 14
 22528   93- 10 H   C 2234 aux motor      November 16
 24218   94- 29 KR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 16
 25251   87- 68 BU  Meteor 2-16 deb       November 17
 23067   89- 89 BN  COBE deb              November 20
 24520   94- 29 VU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 20
 25458   87- 68 CF  Meteor 2-16 deb       November 23
 23316   94- 65 D   Solidar. Ariane deb   November 24
 24781   95-  8 G   Cosmos 2306 deb       November 25
 25229   87- 68 BG  Meteor 2-16 deb       November 25?
 23772   95- 11 K   SFU deb               November 26
 23083   89- 89 CE  COBE deb              November 27
 23101   94- 28 A   MSTI 2                November 27
 25294   86- 17 MQ  Mir VDU               November 28
 24463   94- 29 TL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 29
 22439   92- 93 EG  C 2227 Zenit deb      November 30
 25247   87- 68 BQ  Meteor 2-16 deb       November 30
 24237   94- 29 LL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  2
 24603   94- 29 ZF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  2
 25230   87- 68 BH  Meteor 2-16 deb       December  2
 25232   87- 68 BK  Meteor 2-16 deb       December  2
  8368   75-100 C   GEOS 1 Delta 1 r2     December  5
 21337   75- 52 BF  Nimbus 6 Delta deb    December  6
 24069   94- 29 DS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  6
 25455   87- 68 CC  Meteor 2-16 deb       December  7
 24008   94- 29 BD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  9
 24816   95- 71 D   Cosmos 2326 deb       December 11
 24101   94- 29 EY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 12
 25190   87- 68 R   Meteor 2-16 deb       December 12
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6            December 13
 11240   79-  4 A   Molniya 3-11          December
 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r           January
 25120   97- 84 J   Orbcomm 8 Pegasus r    January
 25421   98- 46 J   Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r   January     Note 1
 23907   96- 29 B   NOSS 2-3 r            February
P>Note


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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk


Last updated: 1998 October 29