SatEvo decay list #62 (issued 1998 September 20)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by October 31, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.
Although it is not included in this decay list, I calculate that the Mir complex now has less than one year left in orbit, even if nothing is done to deorbit it intentionally. My current calculations suggest decay in 1999 August, but increasing levels of solar activity could bring it down two or three months earlier than this.
# Designation Name ---- Decay (1998/9) ----
Predicted Actual?
24425 94- 29 SD STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 2
10794 78- 39 C YURI Delta 1 r2 September 4.90
22524 93- 10 G M-3S2 aux motor September 5.61
18879 88- 12 C CS 3A H-1 r2 September 6.1
23970 94- 29 Q STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 6
25466 98- 50 E Astra 2A Proton deb September 6?
14041 83- 38 E Cosmos 1456 r September 8.53
22541 92- 93 HB C 2227 Zenit deb September 10
25378 94- 29 ADQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb september 10
24255 94- 29 ME STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 12
5400 71- 67 M OV1-20/OV1-21 deb September 15.65
24535 94- 29 WK STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 16
24587 94- 29 YP STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 16
22821 93- 11 G M-3S2 deb September 19.30
24935 81- 59 H NOAA 7 deb September 19
14587 83-126 A Cosmos 1518 september 19.6
24561 94- 29 XM STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 20
25433 98- 48 C Iridium 3 CSL02 r September 20.85
23065 89- 89 BL COBE deb September 21?
25357 94- 29 ADM STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 21
25434 98- 48 D Iridium 3 CSL02 S/D September 22
25439 86- 17 MV Mir deb September 22
156 61- 15 AS Thor Ablestar deb September 25
10202 77- 65 AF Himawari Delta deb September 25?
22539 92- 93 GZ Cosmos 2223 deb September 25
24171 94- 29 HW STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 25
20957 90-102 E Gorizont 33 aux mot September 26
24915 81- 59 G NOAA 7 deb September 26
24830 97- 28 D Cos 2344 ullage r September 28
25020 97- 65 B DSCS-3 Centaur r September 29
4894 69- 82 HD Thorad Agena D deb September 30
24784 95- 8 K Cosmos 2306 deb October 2
24379 94- 29 QG STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 4
24250 94- 29 LZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 6
24012 94- 29 BH STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 7
24533 94- 29 WH STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 8
24456 95- 71 C Cosmos 2326 deb October 9
23202 94- 49 D BzlSt B1 Ariane deb October 11
22683 89- 89 E COBE deb October 14
22920 90- 37 C HST array October 14
24691 94- 29 AAZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 14
17342 86- 19 DP SPOT 1 Ariane 1 deb October 15
20116 89- 52 F Gorizont 18 aux motor October 16
23771 95- 11 J SFU deb October 16
25335 94- 29 ADL STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 17
24783 95- 8 J Cosmos 2306 deb October 18
20979 90-105 B DMSP F10 deb October 20
24396 94- 29 QZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 20
24030 94- 29 CB STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 22
25052 97- 71 D Sirius 2 deb (Spelda) October 26
24232 94- 29 LF STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 27
11240 79- 4 A Molniya 3-11 November
20546 90- 28 A Pegsat November
23101 94- 28 A MSTI 2 November
25100 97- 58 D Inspektor November
4583 70- 85 A Meteor 1-6 December
8368 75-100 C GEOS 1 Delta 1 r2 December
25294 86- 17 MQ Mir VDU December
25421 96- 46 J Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r January
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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk