SatEvo decay list #61 (issued 1998 September 5)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Note that, although this list is being issued on September 5, no fresh elsets have been released by NASA's Orbital Information Group since September 3. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by October 15, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.
Elevated solar activity in recent weeks has increased the atmospheric density at satellite heights and damaged the life-expectancy of many objects.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (1998) -----
Predicted Actual?
24104 94- 29 FB STEP-2 Pegasus deb August 21
24987 94- 29 ACV STEP-2 Pegasus deb August 23
25438 98- 48 H Iridium 3 CSL02 deb August 24.2
25437 98- 48 G Iridium 3 CSL02 deb August 24.4
25436 98- 48 F Iridium 3 CSL02 deb August 24.5
25435 98- 48 E Iridium 3 CSL02 deb August 24.7
19952 89- 16 K M-3S2 deb August 25.4
24489 94- 29 UN STEP-2 Pegasus deb August 26
25174 98- 10 F Iridium 50 Delta r August 26.91
25322 98- 26 D Iridium 69 CZ-2C S/D August 27.34
24186 94- 29 JM STEP-2 Pegasus deb August 28
25302 86- 17 MS Mir deb August 28.5
24006 94- 29 BB STEP-2 Pegasus deb August 29
24398 94- 29 RB STEP-2 Pegasus deb August 30
25464 98- 50 C Astra 2A Proton plat August 30.81
25463 98- 50 B Astra 2A Proton r September 1.14
10202 77- 65 AF Himawari Delta 1 deb September 1
24059 94- 29 DG STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 1
14596 83-126 D C 1518 Molniya r2 September 2.37
24125 94- 29 FY STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 2
10794 78- 39 C YURI Delta 1 r2 September 4.8
23970 94- 29 Q STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 5
22524 93- 10 G M-3S2 aux motor September 5
18879 88- 12 C CS 3A H-1 r2 September 6
24425 94- 29 SD STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 6
14041 83- 38 E Cosmos 1456 r September 8
22541 92- 93 HB C 2227 Zenit deb September 9
24255 94- 29 ME STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 9
5400 71- 67 M OV1-20/OV1-21 deb September 13
25357 94- 29 ADM STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 13
24587 94- 29 YP STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 15
4894 69- 82 HD Thorad Agena D deb September 16
22821 93- 11 G M-3S2 deb September 16
24535 94- 29 WK STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 16
25439 86- 17 MV Mir deb September 17
24171 94- 29 HW STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 18
24561 94- 29 XM STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 19
24935 81- 59 H NOAA 7 deb September 19
25433 98- 48 C Iridium 3 CSL02 r September 20
156 61- 15 AS Thor Ablestar deb September 21
24915 81- 59 G NOAA 7 deb September 21
23065 89- 89 BL COBE deb September 23
25020 97- 65 B DSCS-3 Centaur r September 23
25434 98- 48 D Iridium 3 CSL02 S/D September 24
24830 97- 28 D Cos 2344 ullage r September 27
22539 92- 93 GZ Cosmos 2223 deb September 28
24250 94- 29 LZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 30
24379 94- 29 QG STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 30
24784 95- 8 K Cosmos 2306 deb October 1
17342 86- 19 DP SPOT 1 Ariane 1 deb October 7
20957 90-102 E Gorizont 33 aux mot October 7
24456 95- 71 C Cosmos 2326 deb October 7
22920 90- 37 C HST array October 9
22683 89- 89 E COBE deb October 10
24533 94- 29 WH STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 10
24691 94- 29 AAZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 10
24232 94- 29 LF STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 11
23202 94- 49 D BzlSt B1 Ariane deb October 14
23771 95- 11 J SFU deb October 14
24396 94- 29 QZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 15
11240 79- 4 A Molniya 3-11 November
20546 90- 28 A Pegsat November
25100 97- 58 D Inspektor November
8368 75-100 C GEOS 1 Delta 1 r2 December
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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk