SatEvo decay list #60 (issued 1998 August 19)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column this time if I anticipate their decay by September 30, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name               ----- Decay (1998) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 25051   97- 71 C   Sirius 2 Ariane r                August  6.56
 24201   94- 29 KC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               August  8
 25150   92- 72 E   Galaxy 7 Ariane deb              August  8?  Note 1
 24639   78- 96 G   Tiros N deb                      August 11.6
 23574   94- 17 M   USA 101 deb                      August 13.33
 25430   98- 47 B   Soyuz TM-28 Soyuz-U r            August 15.29
 21932   92- 19 C   Navstar 25 PAM-D r               August 16.56
 23905   78- 64 G   Seasat 1 deb                     August 18
 24104   94- 29 FB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 20
 24489   94- 29 UN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 26
 25174   98- 10 F   Iridium 50 Delta r      August 26
 25302   86- 17 MS  Mir deb                 August 28
 19952   89- 16 K   M-3S2 deb               August 29
 24186   94- 29 JM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 31
 25322   98- 26 D   Iridium 69 CZ-2C S/D    August 31
 10202   77- 65 AF  Himawari Delta 1 deb September  2
 14596   83-126 D   C 1518 Molniya r2    September  2
 24006   94- 29 BB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September  2
 24398   94- 29 RB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September  2
 24059   94- 29 DG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September  3
 10794   78- 39 C   YURI Delta 1 r2      September  6
 24125   94- 29 FY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September  7
 22524   93- 10 G   M-3S2 aux motor      September  8
 14041   83- 38 E   Cosmos 1456 r        September  9
 18879   88- 12 C   CS 3A H-1 r2         September  9
 22541   92- 93 HB  C 2227 Zenit deb     September 12
 24425   94- 29 SD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 12
 23970   94- 29 Q   STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 14
  4894   69- 82 HD  Thorad Agena D deb   September 17
  5400   71- 67 M   OV1-20/OV1-21 deb    September 20
 24250   94- 29 LZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 21
 24935   81- 59 H   NOAA 7 deb           September 21
 23065   89- 89 BL  COBE deb             September 23
 22821   93- 11 G   M-3S2 deb            September 27
 24255   94- 29 ME  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 28
 25020   97- 65 B   DSCS-3 Centaur r       October
 22920   90- 37 C   HST array             November
  8368   75-100 C   GEOS 1 Delta 1 r2     December
 20546   90- 28 A   Pegsat                December
 25100   97- 58 D   Inspektor             December

Notes

• 1. #25150 (92- 72 E = Galaxy 7 Ariane deb). The final elset is dated August 5 and USSPACECOM state that this decayed on August 8. My analysis suggests that it should have survived until about August 27.
• 2. #12512 (81- 54 E = Molniya 3-16 r2). Lunisolar perturbations forced the perigee well below 80 km by July 29 when USSPACECOM appeared to lose it for a while. By the time it was recovered on August 8, the mean motion had increased from 2.8 to 6.1 revs/day and the apogee had fallen from 29,906 to 12,354 km. Surprisingly, however, its perigee was 110 km and rising and it appears that this object is off the critical list for at least the next few months.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk