SatEvo decay list #55 (issued 1998 June 6)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

The "Actual" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included this time if I anticipate their decay by July 15, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. In general, decay dates have slipped since last time.

   #    Designation    Name               ----- Decay (1998) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 25177   87- 68 C   Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb               May 15? Note 2
 24633   94- 29 AAM STEP-2 Pegasus deb                  May 20
 24958   97- 58 C   Sputnik-40                          May 21.50
 24899   97- 41 E   C 2345 SL12 aux mot                 May 21.61
 24419   86- 17 LV  Mir deb                             May 22.0
 24747   97- 10 D   Zeya deb                            May 22.5
 15344   71-120 F   Meteor 1-10 SL-3 deb                May 28.7
 24098   94- 29 EV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                  May 30
 25304   86- 17 MU  Mir deb                             May 30.8
 25329   98- 27 C   C 2351 Molniya plat                June  2.47
 25293   86- 17 MN  Mir deb                            June  3.4
 25348   98- 32 G   Iridium 70 deb                     June  3.5
 25087   97- 78 B   Galaxy 8I Centaur r                June  4.8
 25250   87- 68 BT  Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb              June  5.0
 24746   97- 10 C   Zeya deb                           June  5.5
 25353   98- 27 F   C 2351 Molniya deb                 June  5.65
 19828   63- 14 EP  Westford Needles deb      June  6
 25321   98- 26 C   Iridium 69 CZ-2C r        June  7.3
 23920   86- 17 LG  Mir deb                   June  9
 25301   86- 17 MR  Mir deb                   June  9
 25303   86- 17 MT  Mir deb                   June 13
 24384   94- 29 QM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 16
 25351   98- 27 E   C 2351 Molniya deb        June 16
 24991   94- 29 ACY STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 17? Note 1
 23085   89- 89 CG  COBE deb                  June 18
 24552   94- 29 XC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 22
 25109   97- 82 F   Iridium 45 Delta r        June 22
 24649   96- 62 B   Mars GS Delta 2 r         June 23
 25328   98- 27 B   C 2351 Molniya r          June 25
 23904   86- 17 KX  Mir deb                   June 27
 24583   94- 29 YK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 30
 24580   94- 29 YG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July  3
 22914   93- 73 D   Solidaridad Ariane deb    July  6
 23262   90- 81 CT  FY-1B CZ-4 deb            July 10
 25350   98-  8 F   Globalstar FM1 deb        July 14
 25278   64-  6 AF  Elektron 1 SL-3 deb       July 15
 24294   96- 50 D   Interbol 2 Molniya-M r    July 24
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2         August
 21932   92- 19 C   Navstar 25 PAM-D r      August
 25322   98- 26 D   Iridium 69 CZ-2C S/D    August
 10794   78- 39 C   YURI Delta 1 r2      September
 14041   83- 38 E   Cosmos 1456 r        September
 18879   88- 12 C   CS 3A H-1 r2         September
 19730   88-115 A   Molniya 1-74         September
 25174   98- 10 F   Iridium 50 Delta r   September
 25100   97- 58 D   Inspektor             December

Notes

• 1. No recent elsets.
• 2. #25177 I decayed this on April 29 in SatEvo decay list #53. Later elsets prove it survived a little longer.
• 3. #25347 (98- 32 F = Iridium 70 Delta r). On the basis of its first elsets, my previous list had this decaying in August. In fact, those elsets greatly overstated the drag. I now suspect that this object will survive until 2000 or 2001.

Return to the SatEvo decay list archive

Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk