SatEvo decay list #52 (issued 1998 April 19)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
The "Actual" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included here if I anticipate their decay by May 31, although several larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. With solar activity remaining at very high levels, most decay dates have been brought forward since my previous list.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (1998) -----
Predicted Actual?
24041 94- 29 CN STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 6
24144 94- 29 GT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 6
25140 86- 17 MK Mir deb April 7.5
24188 94- 29 JP STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 8.3
25238 98- 13 B Hot Bird 4 Ariane r April 8.31
24364 94- 29 PR STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 8.7
24997 94- 29 ADE STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 11
25150 92- 72 E Galaxy 7 Ariane deb April 11? Note 1
21892 92- 9 C Navstar 24 r2 (PAM-D) April 12.42
24574 94- 29 YA STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 12
24615 94- 29 ZT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 13
25142 86- 17 ML Mir deb April 13
25295 97- 80 C Cosmos 2348 deb April 14.3
25296 97- 80 D Cosmos 2348 deb April 14.4
24035 94- 29 CG STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 15
24970 97- 56 F Iridium 19 Delta r April 17.95
20132 88- 98 C TDF 1 Ariane 2 deb April 22
24787 97- 19 B GOES 10 Centaur r April 22.2
23193 94- 47 B DBS 2 Atlas Centaur r April 22.9
25144 87- 79 M Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 23
25264 98- 18 C Iridium 51 CZ-2C r April 24.0
25044 97- 69 F Iridium 43 Delta r April 24.7
22943 83- 75 AG Cosmos 1484 deb April 26
23063 89- 89 BJ COBE deb April 26? Note 1
24083 94- 29 EE STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 26
25196 87- 68 X Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 27?
25283 86- 17 MM Mir deb April 27
24423 94- 29 SB STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 28
25177 87- 68 C Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 29? Note 1
25250 87- 68 BT Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 30
22852 89- 89 AP COBE deb May 1
23910 86- 17 KY Mir deb May 2
24554 94- 29 XE STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 2
25195 87- 68 W Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb May 2
24408 94- 29 RM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 4
21057 91- 3 C Italsat 1 Ariane r May 5
24633 94- 29 AAM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 6
24098 94- 29 EV STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 7
24384 94- 29 QM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 7
24354 94- 29 PF STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 8
19380 88- 69 D Molniya 1-73 r2 May 10? Note 2
21895 92- 10 C Superbird B1 Ariane r May 10
23069 89- 89 BQ COBE deb May 10
24419 86- 17 LV Mir deb May 11
23085 89- 89 CG COBE deb May 12
15344 71-120 F Meteor 1-10 SL-3 deb May 14
24747 97- 10 D Zeya deb May 15
24991 94- 29 ACY STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 15
24958 97- 58 C Sputnik-40 May 16
25277 98- 19 F Iridium 55 Delta r May 16
25293 86- 17 MN Mir deb May 16
14034 83- 38 A Cosmos 1456 May 17
24214 94- 29 KM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 18
24350 94- 29 PB STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 18
24552 94- 29 XC STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 19
24746 97- 10 C Zeya deb May 22
24169 94- 29 GA STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 23
25265 98- 18 D Iridium 51 CS02 S/D May 23
23262 90- 81 CT FY-1B CZ-4 deb May 26
23920 86- 17 LG Mir deb May 29
24649 96- 62 B Mars GS Delta 2 r June 22
19730 88-115 A Molniya 1-74 July
24294 96- 50 D Interbol 2 Molniya-M r July
25109 97- 82 F Iridium 45 Delta r July
12519 81- 54 E Molniya 3-16 r2 August
25174 98- 10 F Iridium 50 Delta r August
25100 97- 58 D Inspektor September
Notes
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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk