SatEvo Decay List #51

SatEvo decay list #51 (issued 1998 April 4)

This further list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

The "Actual" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Pegasus debris objects are included here if I anticipate their decay by May 15. Other objects are included to June 15, although I include several larger and/or more interesting decayers beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name               ----- Decay (1998) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 22587   93- 11 E   M-3S2 deb                         March 23
 24548   94- 29 WY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 24
 19380   88- 69 D   Molniya 1-73 r2                   March 25?   Note 2
 23896   86- 17 KP  Mir deb                           March 26.30
 22774   89- 89 AK  COBE deb                          March 27
 25266   98- 18 E   Iridium 51 CSL02 deb              March 29.17
 25268   98- 18 G   Iridium 51 CSL02 deb              March 30.12
 24874   97- 34 F   Iridium 15 Delta r                March 30.20
 25267   98- 18 F   Iridium 51 CSL02 deb              March 30.2
 24079   94- 29 EA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 30
 24353   94- 29 PE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 31.1
 25269   98- 18 H   Iridium 51 CZ deb                 April  2?   Note 3
 19297   76-103 F   Cosmos 860 deb                    April  3.0
 25150   92- 72 E   Galaxy 7 Ariane deb      April  5?   Note 1
 24144   94- 29 GT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  6.5
 24041   94- 29 CN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  7
 25140   86- 17 MK  Mir deb                  April  7
 25238   98- 13 B   Hot Bird 4 Ariane r      April  8
 24188   94- 29 JP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  9
 24364   94- 29 PR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  9
 24574   94- 29 YA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 11
 24997   94- 29 ADE STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 11
 21892   92-  9 C   Navstar 24 r2 (PAM-D)    April 12
 24615   94- 29 ZT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 14
 25142   86- 17 ML  Mir deb                  April 14
 24970   97- 56 F   Iridium 19 Delta r       April 18
 24035   94- 29 CG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 22
 24423   94- 29 SB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 24
 25264   98- 18 C   Iridium 51 CZ-2C r       April 25
 20132   88- 98 C   TDF 1 Ariane 2 deb       April 26
 23063   89- 89 BJ  COBE deb                 April 26?   Note 1
 25250   87- 68 BT  Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb    April 29?   Note 1
 23193   94- 47 B   DBS 2 Atlas Centaur r    April 30
 22943   83- 75 AG  Cosmos 1484 deb            May  1
 25044   97- 69 F   Iridium 43 Delta r         May  2
 25277   98- 19 F   Iridium 55 Delta r         May  3
 22852   89- 89 AP  COBE deb                   May  4
 24991   94- 29 ACY STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  4
 23910   86- 17 KY  Mir deb                    May  6
 25283   86- 17 MM  Mir deb                    May  6
 21057   91-  3 C   Italsat 1 Ariane r         May  8?   Note 4
 21895   92- 10 C   Superbird B1 Ariane r      May 12
 24083   94- 29 EE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 12
 24554   94- 29 XE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 14
 25265   98- 18 D   Iridium 51 CS02 S/D        May 16
 24747   97- 10 D   Zeya deb                   May 22
 23069   89- 89 BQ  COBE deb                   May 24
 23085   89- 89 CG  COBE deb                   May 25
 24958   97- 58 C   Sputnik-40                 May 26
 15344   71-120 F   Meteor 1-10 SL-3 deb       May 29
 24419   86- 17 LV  Mir deb                    May 29
 24787   97- 19 B   GOES 10 Centaur r         June  3
 24746   97- 10 C   Zeya deb                  June  4
 24294   96- 50 D   Interbol 2 Molniya-M r    July
 24649   96- 62 B   Mars GS Delta 2 r         July
 25109   97- 82 F   Iridium 45 Delta r        July
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2         August
 25174   98- 10 F   Iridium 50 Delta r   September

Notes

1. No recent elsets.
2. #19380 (88- 69 D = Molniya 1-73 r2). No elsets since the suspect ones of March 13. I now believe that this decayed in late-March. The decay date above is very uncertain.
3. #25269 (98- 18 H = Iridiums 51 CZ deb). Two early elsets were published, then it seems to have been lost. The decay date is uncertain.
4. #21057 (91- 3 C = Italsat 1 Ariane r). The latest elsets (March 31 and April 1) suggest decay about April 7, but I suspect that these are spurious.
5. Objects predicted in my previous decay list, but missing this time: #25207 (87- 68 AJ = Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb). The latest elset, issued after an 11-day gap, is inconsistent with earlier ones and suggests that the original object has been lost and subsequently misidentified. #23549 (95- 18 A = Ofeq 3) was boosted from a 519x354 km orbit to one of 518x496 km in two stages between March 22 and March 26. In its new orbit, it may survive for another two years.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk

Last Updated: 1998 April 4