SatEvo decay list #50 (issued 1998 March 21)
This list of satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses brings me to the half-century - my first SatEvo decay list was published via the SeeSat-L mailing list on 1996 March 26. In addition, this is the first to appear on the satellite observers' newsgroup sci.astro.satellite.visual-observe as well as SeeSat-L.
As in my earlier lists, the "Actual" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. In some cases, I am able to give an improved estimate to a decimal part of a day, so that, for example, day 21.43 corresponds to the 21st at about 10:20 UTC. Beware, though, that they are only estimates and even the most accurate could still be wrong by one hour or more.
Pegasus debris objects are included here if I anticipate their decay by April 30. Other objects are included to May 31, although I include several larger and/or more interesting decayers beyond that date. Decay dates have moved earlier since my previous list on March 7; there was a large increase in atmospheric drag around March 11 as sunspot activity reached its highest levels of the current solar cycle.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (1998) -----
Predicted Actual?
24078 94- 29 DZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 7
24399 94- 29 RC STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 12
25242 98- 10 H Iridium 50 deb March 13
25005 97- 59 B Echostar 3 Centaur r March 15.33
25257 98- 15 B Progress M-38 Soyuz r March 16.87
22855 89- 89 AS COBE deb March 18? Note 1
25011 97- 62 B Apstar 2R CZ-3B r March 18.78
18364 87- 78 F Ariane 3 deb March 20.90
24900 97- 41 F C2345 SOZ ullage r March 21.43
24417 94- 29 RW STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 21
22587 93- 11 E M-3S2 deb March 23.6
22774 89- 89 AK COBE deb March 25
24548 94- 29 WY STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 25
23896 86- 17 KP Mir deb March 26
24874 97- 34 F Iridium 15 Delta r March 30
24079 94- 29 EA STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 1
24353 94- 29 PE STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 3
19297 76-103 F Cosmos 860 deb April 5
24144 94- 29 GT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 7
24364 94- 29 PR STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 9
25140 86- 17 MK Mir deb April 9
25238 98- 13 B Hot Bird 4 Ariane r April 9
24041 94- 29 CN STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 11
25207 87- 68 AJ Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 11
19380 88- 69 D Molniya 1-73 r2 April 15? Note 2
24188 94- 29 JP STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 16
24574 94- 29 YA STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 16
21892 92- 9 C Navstar 24 r2 (PAM-D) April 21
24615 94- 29 ZT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 21
25142 86- 17 ML Mir deb April 21
23193 94- 47 B DBS 2 Atlas Centaur r April 23
20132 88- 98 C Ariane 2 deb C April 25
24970 97- 56 F Iridium 19 Delta r April 25
23063 89- 89 BJ COBE deb May 3
25250 87- 68 BT Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb May 12
22943 83- 75 AG Cosmos 1484 deb May 14
23910 86- 17 KY Mir deb May 19
25044 97- 69 F Iridium 43 Delta r May 21
21895 92- 10 C Superbird B1 Ariane r May 23
22852 89- 89 AP COBE deb May 25
21057 91- 3 C Italsat 1 Ariane r May 26
24787 97- 19 B GOES 10 Centaur r May 27
24958 97- 58 C Sputnik-40 May 29
12519 81- 54 E Molniya 3-16 r2 July
24294 96- 50 D Interbol 2 Molniya-M r July
24649 96- 62 B Mars GS Delta 2 r July
25109 97- 82 F Iridium 45 Delta r July
23549 95- 18 A Ofeq 3 August
25174 98- 10 F Iridium 50 Delta r September
Notes
Return to the SatEvo decay list archive
Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk