SatEvo decay list #32 (issued 1997 June 7)

Here is my latest batch of SatEvo decay analyses and predictions. The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the final available elements. Pegasus debris are included if I predict their decay by July 15; other objects are included to August 15.

   #    Designation    Name               ------- Decay -------
                                          Predicted   Actual?

 24826   94- 29 ABY STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 May 19?
 24824   94- 29 ABW STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 May 21?
 24473   94- 29 TW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 May 25
 23934   86- 17 LT  Mir deb                            May 25.5
 23874   86- 17 KB  Mir deb                            May 25.8
 24421   94- 29 RZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 May 26?
 24814   97- 26 C   Telstar 5 deb                      May 27.10
 24322   94- 29 NA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 May 28
 24400   94- 29 RD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 May 28
 24040   94- 29 CM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 May 29
 24563   94- 29 XP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 May 30
 24813   97- 26 B   Telstar 5 Proton r                 May 31.59
 23900   86- 17 KT  Mir deb                            May 31.9
 24601   94- 29 ZD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                June  3
 24017   94- 29 BN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                June  5
 24459   94- 29 TG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                June  6
 24828   97- 28 B   Cosmos 2344 Proton r              June  7.36
 24394   94- 29 QX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     June 14
 24762   97- 15 B   Cosmos 2340 SL-6 r1    June 14
 24555   94- 29 XF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     June 15?
 22757   89- 89 S   COBE deb               June 18
 24390   94- 29 QT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     June 19
 11075   78- 80 D   Molniya 1-42 SL-6 r2   June 22? Note 3
 24442   94- 29 SY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     June 24
 23901   86- 17 KU  Mir deb                June 25
 24802   97- 22 C   Cos 2342 SL-6 plat     June 26
 24549   94- 29 WZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     June 27?
 24559   94- 29 XK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     June 27? Note 1
 24596   94- 29 YY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     June 29
 24472   94- 29 TV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     July  1
 17481   87- 12 B   M-3S2 r                July  2
  4969   70- 25 GP  Thorad Agena D deb     July  3
 24222   94- 29 KV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     July  3
 20856   90- 81 U   CZ-4 deb               July  4
 24366   94- 29 PT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     July  5
 24182   94- 29 JH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     July  6
 24604   94- 29 ZG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     July  6
 23914   86- 17 LC  Mir deb                July  7
 24205   94- 29 KD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     July  7
 24177   94- 29 JC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     July 12
 24295   96- 50 E   SL-6 platform          July 12
 19057   63- 14 EE  Westford Needles deb   July 15? Note 1
 23873   86- 17 KA  Mir deb                July 15
 23596   95- 28 A   Cosmos 2313            July 21
 22758   89- 89 T   COBE deb               July 23
 23676   95- 52 A   Cosmos 2321            July 24
 24801   97- 22 B   Cosmos 2342 SL-6 r1   August 1
 22776   89- 89 AM  COBE deb              August 2
 11007   78- 80 A   Molniya 1-42          August 5? Note 2

Notes

• 1. No recent elements.
• 2. #11007 = 78- 80 A (Molniya 1-42) may after all survive a perigee dip caused by lunisolar effects in July. Elsets during the past week give it a perigee height ranging from 121 to 146 km; calculations suggest that perturbations will force it perhaps 30km lower by July 20.
• 3. #11075 = 78- 80 D (Molniya 1-42 SL-6 r2) has a perigee height below 70 km at present. The decay date is no more than a guess.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk