SatEvo decay list #29 (issued 1997 April 19)

Here is another round of SatEvo decay analyses and predictions. The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the final available elements. Pegasus debris are included only if I predict their decay by May 31; other objects are included to June 30.

   #    Designation    Name               ------- Decay -------
                                          Predicted   Actual?

 24666   96- 67 B   Centaur r                        April  7.10
 24758   97- 14 B   Progress M-34 Soyuz-U r          April  8.71
 24029   94- 29 CA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               April  7
 24617   94- 29 ZV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               April  6
  1725   65- 82 CG  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb                  April 12.0
 24073   94- 29 DU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               April 13
 24510   94- 29 VJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               April 13
 24052   94- 29 CZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               April 14
 24393   94- 29 QW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               April 14
 24556   94- 29 XG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               April 14
 19002   63- 14 DV  Westford Needles deb             April 15? Note 1
 24357   94- 29 PJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               April 17
 24576   94- 29 YC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               April 17
 24611   94- 29 ZP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      April 19? Note 1
  4445   69- 82 ES  Thorad Agena D deb      April 23
 24360   94- 29 PM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      April 23
   748   64-  6 B   Elektron 2              April 24? Note 2
 22754   89- 89 P   COBE deb                April 26
 24392   94- 29 QV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      April 28
 24503   96- 58 F   SL-12 r (aux motor)     April 29
 23911   86- 17 KZ  Mir deb                 April 30
 24406   94- 29 RK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      April 30
 23898   86- 17 KR  Mir deb                 May  1
 24376   94- 29 QD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May  2
  8547   75-123 E   SL-12 r (aux motor)     May  3
 24443   94- 29 SZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May  4
 24498   94- 29 UX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May  5
 24551   94- 29 XB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May  5
 24362   94- 29 PP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May  6
 24391   94- 29 QU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May  9
 24689   94- 29 AAX STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May 10
 24763   97- 15 C   Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat   May 11
 24023   94- 29 BU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May 15
 24563   94- 29 XP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May 15
 23884   86- 17 KD  Mir deb                 May 16
 24601   94- 29 ZD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May 16
 12986   81-113 D   SL-6 r2                 May 18? Note 3
 23570   95- 11 G   SFU deb                 May 18
 23875   86- 17 KC  Mir deb                 May 19
 22757   89- 89 S   COBE deb                May 20
 23874   86- 17 KB  Mir deb                 May 20
 24322   94- 29 NA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May 21
 24400   94- 29 RD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May 21
 23934   86- 17 LT  Mir deb                 May 23
 24555   94- 29 XF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May 25
 24762   97- 15 B   Cosmos 2340 SL-6 r1     May 25
 23900   86- 17 KT  Mir deb                 May 26
 24473   94- 29 TW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May 29
 23983   94- 29 AD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May 30
 24017   94- 29 BN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      May 31
  4969   70- 25 GP  Thorad Agena D deb     June 10
 20856   90- 81 U   CZ-4 deb               June 11
 23901   86- 17 KU  Mir deb                June 12
 17481   87- 12 B   M-3S2 r                June 20
 24295   96- 50 E   SL-6 platform          June 20
 23914   86- 17 LC  Mir deb                June 24
 23873   86- 17 KA  Mir deb                June 29

Notes

• 1. No recent elsets.
• 2. #748 = 64- 6 B (Elektron 2) has seen its perigee dive from 580 km at the beginning of the year to around 96 km now. My decay prediction is very uncertain.
• 3. #12986 = 81-113 D (SL-6 r2) is another eccentric object with a low perigee, down from 210 km in early-1997 to only 85 km according to the latest elset. Again the decay prediction is very uncertain.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk