SatEvo decay list #22 (issued 1997 January 5)

Here is another batch of SatEvo decay predictions. The "Actual?" decay dates are estimates based on the final available elements. With few exceptions, decay dates have slipped since my previous list.

   #    Designation    Name               ------- Decay -------
                                          Predicted   Actual?

 23891   86- 17 KK  Mir deb                          December 27.3
 24045   94- 29 CS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               December 28.0
 24595   94- 29 YX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               December 28
 24026   94- 29 BX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               December 30
 24539   94- 29 WP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                January  1
 23969   94- 29 P   STEP-2 Pegasus deb                January  2
 24570   94- 29 XW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                January  2
 24591   94- 29 YT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                January  2
 24170   94- 29 HV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January  5
 24356   94- 29 PH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January  5? Note 1
 24484   94- 29 UH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January  5
 12915   81-105 A   Molniya 3-17          January  8? Note 2
 24241   94- 29 LQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January  9
 24257   94- 29 MG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January  9
 24516   94- 29 VQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January  9
 24411   94- 29 RQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 11
 24415   94- 29 RU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 11
 24508   94- 29 VG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 11
 24326   94- 29 NB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 13
 24641   96- 60 B   Molniya-3 r           January 13
 23918   86- 17 LE  Mir deb               January 14
 24452   94- 29 SU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 14
 24469   94- 29 TS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 14
 24519   94- 29 VT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 14
 24569   94- 29 XV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 14
 24021   94- 29 BS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 18
 23852   96- 24 B   MSX Delta r           January 26
 24370   94- 29 PX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 27
 24050   94- 29 CX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 29
 24333   94- 29 NJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    January 29
 24578   94- 29 YE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   February  1
 23695   86- 17 JS  Mir deb              February  2
 24673   96- 17 MA  Mir deb              February  3 
 24681   96- 72 B   USA 129 Titan 4 r    February  3
 24061   94- 29 DJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   February  5
 24702   96- 73 B   Bion 11 SL-4 r       February  5
 23992   94- 29 AN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   February  9
 24592   94- 29 YU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   February 11
 23023   94- 14 E   SL-14 deb            February 15
 24616   94- 29 ZU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   February 15
 23990   94- 29 AL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   February 17
 24483   94- 29 UG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   February 17
 24619   94- 29 ZX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   February 20
  7089   73- 86 CH  Delta 1 deb          February 21
 24053   94- 29 DA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   February 23
 23923   86- 17 LK  Mir deb                 March  3
 24659   86- 17 LX  Mir deb                 March  7
 24657   86- 17 LY  Mir deb                 March  9
 23925   86- 17 LM  Mir deb                 March 13
 24010   94- 29 BF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      March 14
  1686   65- 82 AZ  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb         March 17
 23917   86- 17 LD  Mir deb                 March 20
 23825   86- 17 JY  Mir deb                 March 23
 22754   89- 89 P   COBE deb                April

Notes

• 1. No recent elsets.
• 2. The decay prediction for #12915 = 81-105 A (Molniya 3-17) is extremely uncertain - indeed, it may already be down. The object has/had a perigee height of only 72 km according to the latest OIG elset (below) and is/was probably self-luminous at perigee. Elements:

  Molniya 3-17                                     25862 x 72 km
  1 12915U 81105A   97003.17772001  .08797580 -19122-5  66280-3 0  5870
  2 12915  62.3256  54.0458 6665531 266.8747  71.1546  3.22684464 70574
  

Return to the SatEvo decay list archive

Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk