SatEvo Decay List #121

SatEvo decay list #121 (issued 2001 December 9)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) analyses and predictions is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

The decay dates are based on each object's published orbital element sets ("elsets") and, in the case of pending decays, are included until 2002 January 31, although some larger and/or more interesting objects are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name          Estimated actual decay
                                              2001

 19220   88- 51 F   Meteosat P2 r         November 22.40
 23740   95- 68 G   Glonass 79 aux motor  November 22.95
 24149   94- 29 GY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 24.9
 11155   78-117 A   Cosmos 1063           November 25.28
 26427   99- 57 JY  CBERS LM4 deb         November 25.8
 26971   01- 50 B   Molniya 3-52 r1       November 27.09
 26963   78- 64 K   Seasat 1 deb          November 28
 26984   01- 51 B   Progress M1-7 Soyuz r November 28.66
 16878   79- 17 JF  Solwind deb           November 29
 26204   99- 57 CS  CBERS LM4 deb         November 30.6
   275   61- 15 CP  Transit 4A deb        December  1.8
 26990   01- 53 D   Uragan Proton r       December  2.18 Note 1
 21867   92-  7 A   JERS 1                December  3.56
 24317   96- 49 C   FAST Pegasus deb      December  3.7
 26875   01- 32 C   Koronas-F deb         December  3.77
 26877   01- 32 E   Koronas-F deb         December  5.1
 24259   94- 29 MJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  5.4
 26292   99- 57 GE  CBERS LM4 deb         December  5.9
 25155   98-  6 D   Inmarsat 3-F5 Spelda  December  5.97
 20610   90- 43 D   Macsat 1 Scout deb    December  8.0


   #    Designation    Name              Predicted decay
                                              2001

  4444   69- 82 ER  OPS 1807 ThAg deb     December  9.3
 26935   01- 44 B   USA 161 Titan 4 r     December  9
 11216   76-120 AT  Cosmos 880 deb        December  9.8
 17123   86- 19 T   Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb   December 10
 19108   63- 14 EH  Westford Needles deb  December 10
 24014   94- 29 BK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 10
 24339   94- 29 NQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 10
  5591   71- 15 BZ  Cosmos 397 deb        December 13
 20052   89- 43 A   Molniya 3-35          December 13
 25556   64- 49 L   Cosmos 41 deb         December 14?
 26426   99- 57 JX  CBERS LM4 deb         December 15
 24199   94- 29 KA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 16
 24318   96- 49 D   FAST Pegasus deb      December 20
 26797   89-101 S   Cos 2054 Proton deb   December 22
  5981   63- 14 CY  Westford Needles deb  December 23
 22298   92- 93 N   Cos 2227 Zenit deb    December 23
  4802   70-109 B   Diamant B r           December 24
 24212   94- 29 KK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 25
 13446   82- 83 E   Molniya 3-19 r2       December 29?
 26201   99- 57 CP  CBERS LM4 deb         December 29
 26999   01- 55 C   Jason 1 Delta 2 r     December 29
  3717   68- 97 AU  Cosmos 252 deb        December 30
 24766   94- 29 ABL STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 30

                                              2002
 20307   78-100 AS  Cos 1045 SL-14 deb     January  1
 21267   91- 32 B   NOAA 12 deb            January  2
 26966   94- 77 L   Cos 2297 Zenit deb     January  3
 26784   71-120 J   Meteor 1-10 SL-3 deb   January  5
 13432   82- 83 A   Molniya 3-19           January  6?
 25191   87- 68 S   Met 2-16 Tsyklon deb   January  6
  4944   70- 25 GE  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb      January  7
 24610   94- 29 ZN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  7
 24133   94- 29 GG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  9
  8309   74- 89 BS  NOAA 4 Thorad Dlt deb  January 12
 26925   91- 50 G   ERS-1 Ariane 40 deb    January 13?
 14319   83- 90 D   Molniya 3-21 r2        January 14
 23733   95- 67 D   Telecom 2C Spelda      January 14
  9828   76-126 AQ  Cosmos 886 deb         January 15
 26316   99- 57 GZ  CBERS LM4 deb          January 15
 11932   80- 69 A   Cosmos 1206            January 16
 24134   94- 29 GH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 17
 24736   96- 10 F   Raduga 33 aux motor    January 22
 11056   78- 94 B   Cosmos 1043 r          January 23
  5759   70- 89 CK  Cosmos 374 deb         January 24
 12702   81- 53 AW  Cosmos 1275 deb        January 25
 13023   81- 53 EV  Cosmos 1275 deb        January 25
 26660   99- 57 LS  CBERS LM4 deb          January 25
 18678   63- 14 DL  westford Needles deb   January 26
 24155   94- 29 HE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 27
 26501   00- 49 E   Raduga-1 5 aux motor   January 28
 26625   00- 76 B   Anik F1 Ariane 44L r   January 29
 21987   92- 31 A   EUVE                  February  4
 21141   91- 15 C   Ariane 44LP r         February  5
 23009   94- 10 B   Dummy mass            February  6
 26889   01- 35 B   SimpleSat 1           February 11
 22013   92- 38 B   Sampex r              February 12
 24947   97- 51 D   Iridium 27 tum        February 12
 25988   99- 65 J   Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r2 February 14
 19544   88- 90 D   Molniya 3-33 r2       February 20
 11556   79- 70 D   Molniya 1-44 r2       February 21 Note 2
 11269   79- 12 B   Cosmos 1077 r         February 24
  1843   65-106 A   Cosmos 100            February 28
 11600   79- 93 A   Cosmos 1143              March
 23742   95- 69 B   Galaxy 3R Centaur r      March
 24779   97- 18 A   Minisat-01               March
 26641   00- 81 D   Astra 2D Ariane 5 r      March
 24645   96- 61 A   SAC-B/HETE + r           April
  2129   66- 26 B   P-35-15 r                  May
 22780   93- 54 B   GPS 2-22 r1                May
 25389   98- 42 A   Tubsat N                   May
 25987   99- 65 H   Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r1      May
 11821   80- 44 A   Cosmos 1184               June

Notes

1. The re-entry of the Uragan Proton r, the 3rd stage of the Proton used to launch three Uragan navigation satellites, was widely observed as it tracked northwards over Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska in the late evening of December 1 local time. Another re-entry observed from southern England, France and Belgium at December 1.94 is believed to have been of the casing or "platform" from this launch. The later object was not catalogued by SpaceCom.
2. #11556 = Molniya 1-44 r2 was incorrectly called Cosmos 1043 r last time.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk

Last updated: 2001 December 9