SatEvo Decay List #115

SatEvo decay list #115 (issued 2001 March 24)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2001 May 20, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name               ---- Decay (2001) ----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 23019   94- 14 A   Koronas 1                         March  4.43
 26062   00-  4 B   OCS                               March  5.29
 17152   86- 19 AF  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb               March  5.8
 26709   01-  7 H   Odin Start-1 deb                  March  5.8
 26705   01-  7 D   Odin Start-1 deb                  March  5.9
  4215   69- 82 CE  OPS 1807 ThAg deb                 March  6.1
 26706   01-  7 E   Odin Start-1 deb                  March  6.7
 12948   81- 53 EC  Cosmos 1275 deb                   March  7.0
 26327   99- 57 HL  CBERS LM4 deb                     March  7.0
  4620   70- 89 G   Cosmos 374 deb                    March  7.9
  4623   70- 91 C   Cosmos 375 deb                    March 11.3
 26707   01-  7 F   Odin Start-1 deb                  March 12.4
  9968   61- 15 KQ  Transit 4A deb                    March 13.7
 14361   81- 53 HX  Cosmos 1275 deb                   March 14?
 26399   00- 36 F   Cosmos 2371 aux motor             March 16.75
 22466   92- 93 FF  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb             March 17.3
 26691   01-  4 B   GPS 2R-7 Delta 2 r                March 17.35
 24217   94- 29 KQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 17.7
 24441   94- 29 SX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 21.3  Note 1
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                               March 23.24 Note 2
 26059   00-  3 B   Zhongxing-22 CZ-3A r              March 23.37
 22233   92- 79 C   GPS 2-16 r2              March 24
 23951   96- 40 D   Arabsat 2A Spelda        March 25
 26173   99- 57 BK  CBERS LM4 deb            March 25
 26326   99- 57 HK  CBERS LM4 deb            March 27
 19733   88-115 D   Molniya 1-74 r2          March 28
 23029   94- 16 C   GPS 2-24 r2              March 28
 25554   64- 49 J   Cosmos 41 deb            March 28?
 24385   94- 29 QN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 30
 25013   97- 63 A   STEP M4                  March 31
 26177   99- 57 BP  CBERS LM4 deb            April  2
 22464   92- 93 FD  Cosmos 2272 Zenit deb    April  3
   462   61- 15 EY  Transit 4A deb           April  6
 20471   88- 93 C   Cosmos 1975 deb          April  7
 21840   70- 25 QL  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb        April  9
 26161   99- 57 AX  CBERS LM4 deb            April  9
 23133   94- 35 B   UHF F/O 3 r              April 11
 23281   94- 61 C   Cosmos 2292 deb          April 11
 24099   94- 29 EW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 14
 25392   98- 42 D   Tubsat N SSN-23 deb      April 14
 15957   85- 70 E   Raduga 16 aux motor      April 15
 26176   99- 57 BN  CBERS LM4 deb            April 15
 17988   86- 19 NQ  Spot 1 Ariane deb        April 19
 26271   99- 57 FH  CBERS LM4 deb            April 19
 26258   99- 57 EU  CBERS LM4 deb            April 20
  5143   71- 31 B   Meteor 1-8 r             April 24
 26249   99- 57 EK  CBERS LM4 deb            April 24
 15553   69- 82 KS  OPS 1807 ThAg deb        April 25
 26210   99- 57 CY  CBERS LM4 deb            April 25
 21841   70- 25 QM  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb        April 29
 26730   99- 51 D   Ikonos 2 Athena deb      April 30
  5393   70- 25 KY  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb          May  2
 10960   77- 53 B   NTS 2 Altas r              May  2
  5034   70- 89 E   Cosmos 374 deb             May  4
 16546   64-  6 K   Elektron 1 deb             May  7
 16547   64-  6 L   Elektron 1 deb             May  7
 25107   97- 82 D   Iridium 48                 May 10
 24359   94- 29 PL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 11
   647   61- 15 GY  Transit 4A deb             May 15
 11458   79- 67 B   Cosmos 1116 r              May 20
 14313   83- 90 A   Molniya 3-21               May 30
 17094   79- 17 JH  Solwind deb               June  1
 11252   79-  5 B   Meteor 1-29 r             June  3
 26723   01- 10 B   STS-102 deb (PAD)         June  6
 16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2           June 27
 15955   85- 71 D   Cosmos 1675 r             July
 18980   88- 22 A   Molniya 1-72              July
 22048   92- 43 F   Gorizont 26 aux motor     July
 22933   93- 78 D   DBS 1 r                   July
 23099   94- 27 A   SROSS-C2                  July
 23172   94- 38 E   Cosmos 2282 aux motor     July
 26502   00- 49 G   Raduga-1 5 aux motor      July
 11266   79- 11 A   Cosmos 1076             August
 19544   88- 90 D   Molniya 3-33 r2         August
 14319   83- 90 D   Molniya 3-21 r2        October
 14516   83-114 A   Molniya 1-59           October

Note

1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. Although my policy is to exclude from this list objects that are de-orbited intentionally (eg Shuttle, Soyuz, Progress), I make an exception for Mir. The "decay" time above corresponds to the observed re-entry phenomena over Fiji, with ocean impact probably just before March 23 06:00 UTC.
3. Following my warning of its imminent decay in my previous Decay List, #26538 = Cosmos 2372 was manoeuvred higher and no longer appears in the above list.
4. Thanks to Michael A. Earl of the Space Surveillance Research and Analysis Laboratory, Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario, for the "heads up" regarding several of the objects that are decaying from Molniya-type orbits.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk

Last updated: 2001 March 24