SatEvo Decay List #112

SatEvo decay list #112 (issued 2001 February 10)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2001 April 5, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name               ---- Decay (2001) ----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 23982   94- 29 AC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 21.3
 22452   92- 93 ER  C 2227 Zenit deb                January 21.8
 24455   95- 58 H   C 2322 Zenit deb                January 22.8
 14915   78- 26 GQ  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb           January 23.5
 14520   83-114 D   Molniya 1-59 r2                 January 24.99 Note 4
 26689   01-  3 B   Progress M1-5 Soyuz r           January 25.92
 25576   65-109 G   Transit 10 deb                  January 26.1
 20456   77- 65 GD  GMS 1 Dlt deb                   January 26.3
 24176   94- 29 JB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 27.5
 24361   94- 29 PN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 30.7
 26263   99- 57 EZ  CBERS LM4 deb                  February  1.4
 25313   98- 24 C   Nilesat Ariane 44P r           February  1.63
 23976   94- 29 W   STEP-2 Pegasus deb             February  1.7
 25451   87- 68 BY  Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb          February  2.5
 26649   99- 57 LF  CBERS LM4 deb                  February  3.9
 26097   00-  4 N   Picosat deb                    February  7.3  Note 1
 26663   99- 57 LV  CBERS LM4 deb                  February  7.8
 26303   86- 73 D   NOAA 10 deb                    February  8.5
 26606   00- 71 B   Navstar 49 Delta 2 r           February  8.79
  3560   68- 97 N   Cosmos 252 deb                 February  9.6  Note 1
  8432   72- 58 FM  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb February 11.0
 25076   96- 49 H   Fast Pegasus deb      February 11.1
  3687   68- 97 AE  Cosmos 252 deb        February 14
 16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2       February 14? Note 5
 22986   94-  8 F   Raduga 1-3 Proton deb February 16
 23419   94- 77 K   Cosmos 2297 deb       February 16
 26537   83- 44 FR  Cosmos 1461 deb       February 17
 25314   98- 24 D   Nilesat Ariane Spelda February 18
 25720   89-100 BR  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb  February 18
 26600   00- 69 B   Beidou-1 LM3 r        February 20
 16125   85- 91 D   Molniya 3-26 r2       February 21
 20094   89- 48 F   Raduga 1-1 aux motor  February 21
 26328   99- 57 HM  CBERS LM4 deb         February 23
 16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26          February 27?
 12948   81- 53 EC  Cosmos 1275 deb          March  1
 22521   93- 11 A   Astro D                  March  3
  4215   69- 82 CE  OPS 1807 ThAg deb        March  4
 17152   86- 19 AF  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb      March  4
 26062   00-  4 B   OCS                      March  4
  4620   70- 89 G   Cosmos 374 deb           March  6
  4623   70- 91 C   Cosmos 375 deb           March  6
 26327   99- 57 HL  CBERS LM4 deb            March  6
 14361   81- 53 HX  Cosmos 1275 deb          March  7
 26059   00-  3 B   Zhongxing-22 CZ-3A r     March 10
 23019   94- 14 A   Koronas 1                March 11
 22466   92- 93 FF  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb    March 13
 24217   94- 29 KQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 13
  9968   61- 15 KQ  Transit 4A deb           March 14
 24441   94- 29 SX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 17
 19733   88-115 D   Molniya 1-74 r2          March 19
 26691   01-  4 B   GPS 2R-7 Delta 2 r       March 21
 26173   99- 57 BK  CBERS LM4 deb            March 23
 23951   96- 40 D   Arabsat 2A Spelda        March 25
 26177   99- 57 BP  CBERS LM4 deb            March 27
 26326   99- 57 HK  CBERS LM4 deb            March 28
 23029   94- 16 C   GPS 2-24 r2              March 30
 22233   92- 79 C   GPS 2-16 r2              March 31
 26399   00- 36 F   Cosmos 2371 aux motor    March 31
 24385   94- 29 QN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  1
 21840   70- 25 QL  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb        April  3
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                      April  8 Note 3
 23133   94- 35 B   UHF F/O 3 r              April  8
 25013   97- 63 A   STEP M4                  April 10
 15957   85- 70 E   Raduga 16 aux motor      April 30
  5143   71- 31 B   Meteor 1-8 r               May
 10960   77- 53 B   NTS 2 Altas r              May
 11458   79- 67 B   Cosmos 1116 r              May
 25107   97- 82 D   Iridium 48                 May
 11252   79-  5 B   Meteor 1-29 r             June

Notes

1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. No recent elsets.
3. The estimate for #16609, Mir, assumes a natural decay from its current orbit. In fact, there are plans to deorbit it in late-February.
4. #14520, the Molniya 1-59 r2, had been reported as decaying on about 2001 January 15 in SatEvo decay list #110. After being lost for some time, it was recovered and decayed as above.
5. No elsets for #16939, Molniya 1-68 r2, have been issued since February 7 during a period when luni-solar perturbations are expected to be driving the already-low perigee height very sharply down.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk

Last updated: 2001 February 10