SatEvo Decay List #107

SatEvo decay list #107 (issued 2000 October 28)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 December 25, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 18984   88-  6 F   DMSP F9 deb                     October  5.6
 25129   97- 86 D   Asiasat 3 r2                    October  7.14
 25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r                 October  7.21
 26138   99- 57 AA  CBERS LM4 deb                   October  7.2
 21829   91- 87 F   Raduga 28 aux motor             October  8.40
 26542   00- 56 E   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb           October  8.9
 23954   96- 41 B   GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1             October  8.97
 25234   98- 12 B   Teledesic 1                     October  9.17
 26541   00- 56 D   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb           October 10.1
 23971   94- 29 R   STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 10.3
 26543   00- 56 F   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb           October 11.2
 26539   00- 56 B   Cosmos 2372 Zenit r             October 11.75  Note 3
  7967   72- 58 CT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb           October 11.9
 26567   00- 63 D   Cosmos 2374 Proton casing       October 14.02  Note 4
 26408   00- 40 B   GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1             October 14.32
 26540   00- 56 C   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb           October 14.4
 26568   00- 63 E   Cosmos 2374 Proton r            October 14?
 26425   99- 57 JW  CBERS LM4 deb                   October 16.6   Note 1
 23632   95- 39 A   Interbol 1                      October 16.58  Note 2
 26571   00- 64 B   Progress M-43 Soyuz r           October 18.33
 24249   94- 29 LY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 19.1
 23107   93- 61 J   Spot 3 Ariane deb               October 19.8
 23817   96- 15 B   Intelsat 707 Ariane r           October 19.6
  4930   70- 25 FW  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb               October 20.1
 25390   98- 42 B   Tubsat N1                       October 21.43
 25305   94- 29 ADK STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 21
  4325   69- 82 DY  Thorad Agena D deb              October 21.7
 26582   00- 67 C   GE-6 Proton casing              October 22.50
 24566   94- 29 XS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 22.5   Note 1
 26144   99- 57 AG  CBERS LM4 deb                   October 22.8
 26581   00- 67 B   GE-6 Proton r                   October 23.49
 24100   94- 29 EX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 24
 23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                          October 24.71
 26584   95-  8 N   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 25.7
 25031   97- 67 B   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r1             October 25.84
 26133   99- 57 V   CBERS LM4 deb                   October 26.2   Note 1
 26589   95-  8 T   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 27.3   Note 1
 26588   95-  8 S   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 27.5   Note 1
 26586   95-  8 Q   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 27.6   Note 1
 26587   95-  8 R   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 27.7   Note 1
 13759   81- 53 GR  Cosmos 1275 deb                 October 28.0
  1937   65-112 Q   Cosmos 103 SL-8 deb             October 28.2
 17208   86- 19 BL  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb    October 28
 26585   95-  8 P   Cosmos 2306 deb        October 28
 22384   92- 93 BZ  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb  October 30
 23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306            October 30
 26438   99- 57 KK  CBERS LM4 deb         November  1
 26572   98- 67 E   ISS deb               November  2
 15781   80- 30 AX  Cosmos 1174 deb       November  4
 24258   94- 29 MH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  4
 26167   99- 57 BD  CBERS LM4 deb         November  5
  5077   70- 89 AQ  Cosmos 374 deb        November  7
 16311   79- 17 CA  Solwind deb           November  7
 25069   97- 75 C   JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r  November  7
 26431   99- 57 KC  CBERS LM4 deb         November  7
 26206   99- 57 CU  CBERS LM4 deb         November 10
  8979   75-  4 BM  Landsat 4 Delta 1 deb November 12
 20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76          November 12
 24116   94- 29 FP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 13
 25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2   November 13
 26340   99- 57 HZ  CBERS LM4 deb         November 13
 26274   99- 57 FL  CBERS LM4 deb         November 14
  2167   66- 34 B   OV 3-1 r              November 15
 26170   99- 57 BG  CBERS LM4 deb         November 15
 20896   90- 81 BG  FY-1B CZ deb          November 16
 18963   63- 14 DP  Westford Needles deb  November 17?
  3492   65- 82 QN  OV2-1/LCS2 deb        November 19
 21802   91- 62 H   Solar A r deb         November 19
 17726   71- 15 DD  Cosmos 397 deb        November 21
 10212   77- 65 AR  GMS 1 Delta deb       November 24
 24117   94- 29 FQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 27
 22067   92- 47 H   C 2204 Proton r2      December  1
 26455   99- 57 LA  CBERS LM4 deb         December  1
 24164   94- 29 HP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  3
 22380   92- 93 BV  C 2227 Zenit deb      December  4
  4625   70- 91 E   Cosmos 375 deb        December  5
 19830   78-100 AN  C 1045 SL-14 deb      December  6
 24743   97-  9 B   Intelsat 801 Ariane r December  6
 25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79            December  6
  8577   70- 89 AQ  Cosmos 374 deb        December  7
 15538   71- 15 CV  Cosmos 397 deb        December  7
  4618   70- 89 E   Cosmos 374 deb        December  8
 26171   99- 57 BH  CBERS LM4 deb         December  8
 26164   99- 57 BA  CBERS LM4 deb         December  9
 21334   75- 52 BC  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb  December 10
 22373   92- 93 BN  C 2227 Zenit deb      December 10
 26190   99- 57 CC  CBERS LM4 deb         December 11
 24089   94- 29 EL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 12
  4392   70- 34 B   Mao 1 CZ-1 r          December 13
 25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r          December 13
 25422   98- 46 K   Orbcomm 13 Peg r2     December 14
 24140   94- 29 GP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 16
 16243   85-105 D   Cosmos 1701 r2        December 17?
 18719   87-109 E   Ekran 17 aux motor    December 17
 23824   96- 10 E   Raduga 33 aux motor   December 19?
 16480   79- 17 FE  Solwind deb           December 20
 17628   81- 53 LA  Cosmos 1275 deb       December 20
 22925   93- 72 E   Gorizont 29 aux mot   December 20
 26051   93-  9 D   OXP 1 Pegasus deb     December 22
 23854   96- 25 B   Cosmos 2332 r     2001 January  1
  4584   70- 85 B   Meteor 1-6 r      2001 January  3
 24745   97- 10 B   Zeya r            2001 January  4
 14520   83-114 D   Molniya 1-59 r2   2001 January
 16110   85- 90 A   Cosmos 1689       2001 January
 25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85        2001 January
 16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26     2001 February
 16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2  2001 February

Notes

1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. #23632 = Interbol 1. Again, thanks to Vladimir Agapov for alerting me to the decay of this highly eccentric object. The perigee was driven down strongly by luni-solar effects and Interbol 1 plunged into the atmosphere on October 16. My calculations show it falling steeply to an altitude of 80 km near 11.6 deg S, 0.2 deg W, at 14:01:26 UTC on that date. Vladimir reports that calculations at the KAIM Ballistic Center give the decay at 14:03:33 UTC at 10.9835 deg S, 0.18 deg E.
3. The re-entry of #26539 (Cosmos 2372 Zenit rocket) was observed from an aircraft in the vicinity of Maseru, Lesotho, as a long-duration fragmenting fireball at very low elevation between the NNE and ESE.
4. The re-entry of #26567 (Cosmos 2374 Proton casing or "platform") was observed as it passed over Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas - the decay time given is that of the observation. It appears that pieces of debris from the object have been discovered in a field in Kansas. SpaceCom's claim that the fireball came from the Orionids meteor shower is nonsense - at the time of the re-entry the Orionids radiant was some 40 deg _below_ the local NNE horizon.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk

Last updated: 2000 October 28