SatEvo Decay List #106

SatEvo decay list #106 (issued 2000 October 5)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 November 30, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 25813   89-101 K   Cos 2354 Proton deb           September 12.7
 25310   98- 23 E   Globalstar 6 Delta r          September 17.21
 26491   88- 81 F   GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb          September 17.94
  5440   71- 71 C   Eole Scout deb                September 18.0
 26456   99- 57 LB  CBERS LM4 deb                 September 18
 20021   89- 16 N   M-3S2 deb                     September 19.4
 25497   85- 56 F   Giotto Ariane 1 deb           September 19?
 26453   99- 57 KY  CBERS LM4 deb                 September 20
 26492   00- 53 B   STS-106 deb                   September 21.0
 25995   99- 68 B   Terra Centaur r               September 21.56
 14693   84- 11 E   Palapa B2 r                   September 22.17
 25737   99- 26 C   Terriers Peg stg3             September 24.03
 26493   00- 53 C   STS-106 deb                   September 25.0
 26413   92- 72 G   Gal 7 Ariane 42 deb           September 25?
 11221   76-120 AY  Cosmos 880 deb                September 25.8
 23210   94- 50 H   Cosmos 2287 aux mot           September 26.10
 26439   99- 57 KL  CBERS LM4 deb                 September 26.1
  5070   70- 89 AH  Cosmos 374 deb                September 28.3
 24341   94- 29 NS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September 29.2
 26149   99- 57 AK  CBERS LM4 deb                 September 30.0 Note 1
 24238   94- 29 LM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September 30.4
 26403   00- 40 B   EchoStar 6 Centaur r            October  1.57
 26553   00- 58 B   Cosmos 2373 Soyuz-U r           October  2.43
 26556   00- 59 C   GE-1A Proton platform           October  2.45
 26555   00- 59 B   GE-1A Proton r                  October  3.30
 26104   00- 13 E   Express 1A aux motor            October 5.41
 18984   88-  6 F   DMSP F9 deb            October  5.6
 25129   97- 86 D   Asiasat 3 r2           October  7
 25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r        October  7
 26138   99- 57 AA  CBERS LM4 deb          October  7
 21829   91- 87 F   Raduga 28 aux motor    October  8
 23954   96- 41 B   GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1    October  8
 25234   98- 12 B   Teledesic 1            October  8
 26542   00- 56 E   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb  October  8
 23971   94- 29 R   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  9
 26541   00- 56 D   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb  October  9
 26543   00- 56 F   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb  October  9
  7967   72- 58 CT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb  October 10
 26539   00- 56 B   Cosmos 2372 Zenit r    October 10
 26408   00- 40 B   GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1    October 13
 26425   99- 57 JW  CBERS LM4 deb          October 13
 26540   00- 56 C   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb  October 15
 23632   95- 39 A   Interbol 1             October 16.58  Note 2
  4930   70- 25 FW  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb      October 18
 24249   94- 29 LY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 18
 23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                 October 19
 24100   94- 29 EX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 20
 23107   93- 61 J   Spot 3 Ariane deb      October 21
 23817   96- 15 B   Intelsat 707 Ariane r  October 21
 24566   94- 29 XS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 23
 13759   81- 53 GR  Cosmos 1275 deb        October 24
 26144   99- 57 AG  CBERS LM4 deb          October 24
  4325   69- 82 DY  Thorad Agena D deb     October 25
 25305   94- 29 ADK STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 25
 17208   86- 19 BL  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb    October 27
 26438   99- 57 KK  CBERS LM4 deb          October 27
 20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76           October 28
 25031   97- 67 B   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r1    October 29
 25069   97- 75 C   JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r  November  1
 24258   94- 29 MH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  3
 23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306           November  4
  1937   65-112 Q   Cosmos 103 SL-8 deb   November  5
 25390   98- 42 B   Tubsat N1             November  5
 26167   99- 57 BD  CBERS LM4 deb         November  5
 26431   99- 57 KC  CBERS LM4 deb         November  5
 22384   92- 93 BZ  Cosmos 2227 zenit deb November  7
 26133   99- 57 V   CBERS LM4 deb         November  7
  2167   66- 34 B   OV 3-1 r              November 13
 25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2   November 13
 26206   99- 57 CU  CBERS LM4 deb         November 13
 16311   79- 17 CA  Solwind deb           November 16
  5077   70- 89 AQ  Cosmos 374 deb        November 24
  8979   75-  4 BM  Landsat 4 Delta 1 deb November 26
  3492   65- 82 QN  OV2-1/LCS2 deb        November 30
 16243   85-105 D   Cosmos 1701 r2        December
 25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79            December
 14520   83-114 D   Molniya 1-59 r2   2001 January
 16110   85- 90 A   Cosmos 1689       2001 January
 25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r      2001 January
 25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85        2001 January
 16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26     2001 February
 16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2  2001 February

Notes

1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. #23632 = Interbol 1. Thanks to Vladimir Agapov for the "heads-up" regarding this object. The perigee is being driven down strongly by luni-solar effects and it appears that Interbol 1 will plunge into the atmosphere on October 16. My own calculations show it falling steeply to an altitude of 80 km near 7 deg S, 4 deg E, at 13:53 UTC on that date. Vladimir reports that calculations at the KAIM Ballistic Center give the decay at about 13:50 UTC close to 10.8 deg S, 3.4 deg E.

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Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk

Last updated: 2000 October 5