SatEvo Decay List #105

SatEvo decay list #105 (issued 2000 September 12)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the SeeSat-L mailing list and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 November 5, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 23650   95- 17 E   Orbcomm 1 Pegasus deb            August 19.3
 24190   94- 29 JR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               August 19.5
 21538   91- 46 E   Gorizont 23 aux mot              August 22.32 Note 2
 26361   00- 25 B   GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1              August 23.37
 21389   75- 52 DK  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb             August 28
 22968   94-  2 F   GALS 1 aux motor                 August 28.87
 26479   00- 49 C   Raduga-1 5 Proton NE platform    August 29.44
 26468   64- 49 N   Cosmos 41 deb                    August 30
 26478   00- 49 B   Raduga-1 5 Proton r              August 30.91
 23291   85-118 N   Cosmos 1710 Proton deb        September  2.0  Note 1
 12547   81- 58 A   Cosmos 1278                   September  2.12
 26105   00- 13 F   Express 6-A aux mot           September  2.94
 20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux mot           September  3.02
 26472   00- 49 E   Raduga-1 5 Proton deb         September  3
 23049   94- 21 G   Cosmos 2275 aux mot           September  3.81
 26136   99- 57 Y   CBERS LM4 deb                 September  4.9  Note 1
 23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r                        September  5.26
 26485   00- 51 C   Sirius 2 Proton platform      September  5.67
 26484   00- 51 B   Sirius 2 Proton r             September  6.10
 21690   90-105 AE  DMSP F10 deb                  September  7.4  Note 1
 10362   77- 91 A   Cosmos 955                    September  7.79
 24032   94- 29 CD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September  8.4  Note 1
 25180   87- 68 F   Met 2-16 Tsyklon deb          September 10.6  Note 1
 24984   94- 29 ACS STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September 10.8  Note 1
 13775   70- 91 AR  Cosmos 375 deb                September 11    Note 1
 25813   89-101 K   Cos 2354 Proton deb  September 12.7
 26456   99- 57 LB  CBERS LM4 deb        September 16
  5440   71- 71 C   Eole Scout deb       September 18
 25310   98- 23 E   Globalstar 6 Delta r September 18
 26491   88- 81 F   GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb September 18
 20021   89- 16 N   M-3S2 deb            September 20
 25497   85- 56 F   Giotto Ariane 1 deb  September 20
 26453   99- 57 KY  CBERS LM4 deb        September 20
 25995   99- 68 B   Terra Centaur r      September 22
 14693   84- 11 E   Palapa B2 r          September 24
 26413   92- 72 G   Gal 7 Ariane 42 deb  September 24
 25737   99- 26 C   Terriers Peg stg3    September 25
  5070   70- 89 AH  Cosmos 374 deb       September 26
 11221   76-120 AY  Cosmos 880 deb       September 27
 23210   94- 50 H   Cosmos 2287 aux mot  September 28
 26439   99- 57 KL  CBERS LM4 deb        September 29
 24341   94- 29 NS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 30
 26149   99- 57 AK  CBERS LM4 deb        September 30
 21829   91- 87 F   Raduga 28 aux motor    October  7
 18984   88-  6 F   DMSP F9 deb            October  8
 25129   97- 86 D   Asiasat 3 r2           October  8
 24238   94- 29 LM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  9
 23971   94- 29 R   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 12
 26138   99- 57 AA  CBERS LM4 deb          October 13
 25234   98- 12 B   Teledesic 1            October 16
 25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r        October 17
 26403   00- 38 B   EchoStar 6 Centaur r   October 18
 26408   00- 40 B   GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1    October 18
 26431   99- 57 KC  CBERS LM4 deb          October 18
  7967   72- 58 CT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb  October 19
  4325   69- 82 DY  Thorad Agena D deb     October 22
 23954   96- 41 B   GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1    October 22
 23817   96- 15 B   Intelsat 707 Ariane r  October 25
 26425   99- 57 JW  CBERS LM4 deb          October 26
 20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76           October 28 Note 3
 23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                 October 30
 26438   99- 57 KK  CBERS LM4 deb          October 31
 24258   94- 29 MH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  3
 25031   97- 67 B   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r1   November  8
 25069   97- 75 C   JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r  November 10
 25390   98- 42 B   Tubsat N1             November 10
 23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306           November 25
 16243   85-105 D   Cosmos 1701 r2        December    Note 3
 25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2   December
 25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79            December
 14520   83-114 D   Molniya 1-59 r2   2001 January    Note 3
 16110   85- 90 A   Cosmos 1689       2001 January
 25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r      2001 January
 25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85        2001 January
 16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26     2001 February    Note 3
 16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2  2001 February    Note 3

Notes

1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. #21538 - Gorizont 23 aux motor was incorrectly identified as the "Gorizont 32 aux motor" in earlier lists.
3. Thanks to Michael Earl, Space Surveillance Research and Analysis Laboratory of the Royal Military College of Canada, for alerting me to this decay.

Return to the SatEvo decay list archive

Reach the author via email at alan@wingar.demon.co.uk

Last updated: 2000 September 13